Gov't kept silent on worst-case scenario at height of nuclear crisis

By Mari Yamaguchi

TOKYO — The Japanese government’s worst-case scenario at the height of the nuclear crisis last year warned that tens of millions of people, including Tokyo residents, might need to leave their homes, according to a report obtained by The Associated Press. But fearing widespread panic, officials kept the report secret.
  
The recent emergence of the 15-page internal document may add to complaints in Japan that the government withheld too much information about the nuclear accident.
  
It also casts doubt about whether the government was sufficiently prepared to cope with what could have been an evacuation of unprecedented scale.
  
The report was submitted to then-Prime Minister Naoto Kan and his top advisers on March 25, two weeks after the earthquake and tsunami devastated the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, causing three reactors to melt down and generating hydrogen explosions that blew away protective structures.
  
Workers ultimately were able to bring the reactors under control, but at the time, it was unclear whether emergency measures would succeed. Kan commissioned the report, compiled by the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, to examine what options the government had if those efforts failed.
  
Authorities evacuated 59,000 residents within 20 kilometers of the Fukushima plant, with thousands more were evacuated from other towns later. The report said there was a chance far larger evacuations could be needed.
  
The report looked at several ways the crisis could escalate—explosions inside the reactors, complete meltdowns, and the structural failure of cooling pools used for spent nuclear fuel.
  
It said that each contingency was possible at the time it was written, and could force all workers to flee the vicinity, meaning the situation at the plant would unfold on its own, unmitigated.
  
Using matter-of-fact language, diagrams and charts, the report said that if meltdowns spiral out of control, radiation levels could soar.
  
In that case, it said evacuation orders should be issued for residents within and possibly beyond a 170-kilometer radius of the plant and “voluntary” evacuations should be offered for everyone living within 250 kilometers and even beyond that range.
  
That’s an area that would have included Tokyo and its suburbs, with a population of 35 million people, and other major cities such as Sendai, with a million people, and Fukushima city with 290,000 people.
  
The report further warned that contaminated areas might not be safe for “several decades.”
  
“We cannot rule out further developments that may lead to an unpredictable situation at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, where there has been an accident, and this report outlines a summary of that unpredictable situation,” says the document, written by Shunsuke Kondo, head of the commission, which oversees nuclear policy.
  
After Kan received the report, he and other Japanese officials publicly insisted that there was no need to prepare for wider-scale evacuations.
  
Rumors of the document grew this month after media reports outlined its findings and an outside panel was created to investigate possible coverups. Kyodo News agency described the contents of the document in detail last Saturday.
  
The government continues to refuse to make the document public. The AP obtained it Wednesday through a government source, who insisted on anonymity because the document was still categorized as internal.
  
Goshi Hosono, the cabinet minister in charge of the nuclear crisis, implicitly acknowledged the document’s existence earlier this month, but said the government had felt no need to make it public.
  
“It was a scenario based on hypothesis, and even in the event of such a development, we were told that residents would have enough time to evacuate,” Hosono said.
  
“We were concerned about the possibility of causing excessive and unnecessary worry if we went ahead and made it public,” he said. “That’s why we decided not to disclose it.”
  
A Japanese government nuclear policy official, Masato Nakamura, said Wednesday that he stood behind Hosono’s decisions on the document.
  
“It was all his decisions,” he said. “We do not disclose all administrative documents.”
  
Japanese authorities and regulators have been repeatedly criticized for how they have handled information amid the unfolding nuclear crisis. Officials initially denied that the reactors had melted down, and have been accused of playing down the health risks of exposure to radiation.
  
In another example, a radiation warning system known as SPEEDI had identified high-risk areas where thousands of people were continuing to live while the reactors were in critical condition. Officials did not use that data to order evacuations; they have since said it was not accurate enough.
  
The outside panel investigating the government response to the nuclear crisis has been critical, calling for more transparency in relaying information to the public.
  
“Risk communication during the disaster cannot be said to have been proper at all,” it said in its interim report last month.

Will Israel Attack Iran?

By RONEN BERGMAN

As the Sabbath evening approached on Jan. 13, Ehud Barak paced the wide living-room floor of his home high above a street in north Tel Aviv, its walls lined with thousands of books on subjects ranging from philosophy and poetry to military strategy. Barak, the Israeli defense minister, is the most decorated soldier in the country’s history and one of its most experienced and controversial politicians. He has served as chief of the general staff for the Israel Defense Forces, interior minister, foreign minister and prime minister. He now faces, along with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and 12 other members of Israel’s inner security cabinet, the most important decision of his life — whether to launch a pre-emptive attack against Iran. We met in the late afternoon, and our conversation — the first of several over the next week — lasted for two and a half hours, long past nightfall. “This is not about some abstract concept,” Barak said as he gazed out at the lights of Tel Aviv, “but a genuine concern. The Iranians are, after all, a nation whose leaders have set themselves a strategic goal of wiping Israel off the map.”

When I mentioned to Barak the opinion voiced by the former Mossad chief Meir Dagan and the former chief of staff Gabi Ashkenazi — that the Iranian threat was not as imminent as he and Netanyahu have suggested and that a military strike would be catastrophic (and that they, Barak and Netanyahu, were cynically looking to score populist points at the expense of national security), Barak reacted with uncharacteristic anger. He and Netanyahu, he said, are responsible “in a very direct and concrete way for the existence of the State of Israel — indeed, for the future of the Jewish people.” As for the top-ranking military personnel with whom I’ve spoken who argued that an attack on Iran was either unnecessary or would be ineffective at this stage, Barak said: “It’s good to have diversity in thinking and for people to voice their opinions. But at the end of the day, when the military command looks up, it sees us — the minister of defense and the prime minister. When we look up, we see nothing but the sky above us.”

Netanyahu and Barak have both repeatedly stressed that a decision has not yet been made and that a deadline for making one has not been set. As we spoke, however, Barak laid out three categories of questions, which he characterized as “Israel’s ability to act,” “international legitimacy” and “necessity,” all of which require affirmative responses before a decision is made to attack:

1. Does Israel have the ability to cause severe damage to Iran’s nuclear sites and bring about a major delay in the Iranian nuclear project? And can the military and the Israeli people withstand the inevitable counterattack?

2. Does Israel have overt or tacit support, particularly from America, for carrying out an attack?

3. Have all other possibilities for the containment of Iran’s nuclear threat been exhausted, bringing Israel to the point of last resort? If so, is this the last opportunity for an attack?
For the first time since the Iranian nuclear threat emerged in the mid-1990s, at least some of Israel’s most powerful leaders believe that the response to all of these questions is yes.

At various points in our conversation, Barak underscored that if Israel or the rest of the world waits too long, the moment will arrive — sometime in the coming year, he says — beyond which it will no longer be possible to act. “It will not be possible to use any surgical means to bring about a significant delay,” he said. “Not for us, not for Europe and not for the United States. After that, the question will remain very important, but it will become purely theoretical and pass out of our hands — the statesmen and decision-makers — and into yours — the journalists and historians.”

Next page

Halt in Iran oil could push crude up by 30 percent

By REUTERS

International Monetary Fund warns that financial sanctions against Tehran could be "tantamount to an oil embargo".

WASHINGTON - The International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday that global crude prices could rise as much as 30 percent if Iran halts oil exports as a result of US and European Union sanctions.

If Iran halts exports to countries without offsets from other sources it would likely trigger an "initial" oil price jump of 20 to 30 percent, or about $20 to $30 a barrel, the IMF said in its first public comment on a possible Iranian oil supply disruption.

The IMF highlighted the risks of rising tensions over Iran sanctions in a note on Wednesday sent to deputies from G20 countries who met in Mexico City last week.

The price impact caused by a cut in Iranian exports could be exacerbated by below average oil stocks in many countries, the result of tight oil market conditions through much of last year, the IMF said.
The fund's comments add pressure to the Obama administration as it struggles to find a way to get countries to reduce shipments of Iranian oil without pushing prices higher ahead of the November US presidential election.

President Barack Obama is tightening sanctions on Iran in a move aimed to deprive its nuclear program of funds and technology. Western governments believe Iran is trying to build nuclear arms, a charge Tehran denies. The EU has slapped a ban on Iranian oil to take effect in six months.

Financial sanctions against Tehran may be "tantamount to an oil embargo" and would imply supply declines of about 1.5 million barrels per day from the world's fifth-largest oil producer, the IMF said.
That volume of supply disruption would be comparable to losses in output from Libya last year due to civil war that pushed oil prices over $100 a barrel. Iran exports about 2.6 million barrels per day of oil.

Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz shipping route, through which flows 20 percent of oil traded globally.

The IMF said in its global outlook on Tuesday that global oil prices would ease only slightly this year despite a sharp slowdown in world growth. The IMF projection of 2012 average oil price is $99 a barrel versus $100 it forecast three months ago.

The IMF's concerns about a large Iran-related oil supply shock or an actual disruption has risen in recent weeks as powers in the West increase pressure on Tehran. Its view is based on data that shows limited inventory and spare capacity, and projections that oil demand will not slow despite falling growth in advanced and emerging economies.

Iran preparing now for Armageddon

Select fighters being described as 'Soldiers of Imam Mahdi'

By Reza Kahlili
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has held several secret meetings with his economic and military advisers in recent days to prepare for the possibility of war with the United States.
Sources report the preparations are to include the execution of those Iranians who oppose the regime.

Khamenei has been heard to say that the coming of the last Islamic Messiah, the Shiites’ 12th Imam Mahdi, is near and that specific actions need to be taken to protect the Islamic regime for upcoming events.

Mahdi, according to Shiite belief, will reappear at the time of Armageddon.

Selected forces within the Revolutionary Guards and Basij reportedly have been trained under a task force called “Soldiers of Imam Mahdi” and they will bear the responsibility of security and protecting the regime against uprisings. Many in the Guards and Basij have been told that the 12th Imam is on earth, facilitated the victory of Hezbollah over Israel in the 2006 war and soon will announce publicly his presence after the needed environment is created.

According to SepahOnline, sources within the Vali’eh Amr, the revolutionary forces in charge of the supreme leader’s protection, report that Khamenei held several meetings in recent days at which the leader instructed his advisers to tighten the grip on anyone who opposes or might oppose the regime in case of war.

These actions include investigations of every person or group that was pro-regime but now hold opinions contrary to regime policies. Also being created is a list, to be presented to Khamenei, to decide the fate of any opponents.

It also was decided that those political prisoners who will not repent will be executed, the sources said.

This action also was taken by the founder of the Islamic regime in 1988, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.

In the book, “A Time to Betray,” it is documented when Khomeini announced the campaign, he said, “If the person at any stage or at any time maintains his (or her) support for the opposing groups, the sentence is execution. Annihilate the enemies of Islam immediately.”

Watch youtube video - The Coming is Upon Us

The fatwa led to the execution of thousands of innocent men and women of all ages in a very short period.

The list of actions by Khamenei includes investigation of private business owners. If records show that at any time in the past they have not supported the Islamic regime, their businesses and belongings could be confiscated.

Journalists, writers and publishers who are deemed to be against the regime would be arrested and punished. Even high religious authorities who do not fully support Khamenei will be put under surveillance and dealt with if they become outspoken about the direction of the country.

Several journalists already have been arrested in the past week. In a recent speech, Khamenei hinted of a warlike environment and warned those clerics who might doubt his direction of the country that their survival is tied to the survival of the Islamic regime. Many Iranians who resent the regime resent the religion it promotes, so even opposition clerics might not fare well should the regime fall.

The plan by the leader calls for total control of Tehran, the capital where the presence of the Basij and Hezbollah militias would be quite visible so that no one would dare to challenge the regime.

This news comes in light of the formation of the “Removal Committee,” which secretly would eliminate all deemed as opponents, even within the military and the government.

Khamenei’s extraordinary measures are based either on an understanding that war could be imminent or that the regime has decided to announce it has nuclear capability and is getting ready for a possible reaction from Israel or America.

Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, an influential cleric and a radical Twelver, previously had stated that Khamenei ascends to the sky every year to take direction from Imam Mahdi, and sources close to the cleric have disclosed that Khamenei has been ordered by Imam Mahdi to continue with the nuclear program despite worldwide objection as it will facilitate his coming.

Last March, a Iranian secret documentary, “The Coming Is Upon Us,” was revealed to depict Khamenei as the mythical figure who creates the environment for the reappearance of Mahdi by leading Iran to destroy Israel.

Former Indian Army Officer Col. Dr. Anil Athale Warns: Expect a Chinese Attack Against India by 'June/July 2012'

In a recent article, former Indian Army officer Dr. Anil Athale warned that China is carefully orchestrating security-related incidents against India. Such incidents include Chinese military incursions into Indian territory in the Western and North-Eastern border regions of India, recent mistreatment of Indian diplomats and businessmen in China, recurring disputes on the issuance of visas, and diplomatic rows involving Chinese attempts to question Indian sovereignty in Jammu & Kashmir.

Colonel (retired) Anil Athale, who is an author of the official history of the 1962 India-China conflict and now coordinator of the Indian Initiative for Peace, Arms Control & Disarmament (a think tank based in the city of Pune), warned that the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is failing to prepare the country's armed forces to fight a likely war against China, which he warns could come as early as June/July 2012. He said that such a war could be like Pakistan's Kargil war, the 1999 conflict which originated after Pakistani troops and jihadists marched into Kashmir.

"It is time India woke up. Luckily, we do have some time. At the moment the Himalayan passes are frozen and no military operations are possible. The likely threat will only emerge in June/July 2012.

It must be made clear that one is not talking of an all-out war. What we must accept is a short, sharp, attack by the Chinese, more in the nature of a slap!" he wrote in a recent article.

The article, titled "Expect a Chinese attack by June/July", was published by rediff.com, a leading Indian news and community portal.

Following are excerpts from the article:[1]

"On December 14, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Told Parliament That His Government Does not Share the View That China Plans to Attack India"

"Last year when this author wrote about a Kargil-style foray by China in the near future, the idea was more in the realm of speculation. But the events of the last few months seem to move the likelihood from the speculative to the possible.

"But it seems that New Delhi is in deep slumber or has no time to pay attention to such 'minor' issues like national security when all attention is focused on the upcoming assembly election in [the northern state of] Uttar Pradesh…."

"This is an attempt by a student of history to give a wake-up call.

"What makes matters even worse than 'normal' in Delhi today is the inefficiency that has crept in all decision-making due to the 'Diarchy' that prevails in Delhi [i.e. a reference to decision making led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Congress party's boss Sonia Gandhi in whose hands real power resides]. For those unfamiliar with the term – this was the system in British India when the rulers of the princely states had all the trappings of power but the British resident exercised the real power…."

"[The ruling] United Progressive Alliance resembles that model with real power in the hands of the Gandhi dynasty while the prime minister has all the trappings of power. What this has done is the pivotal position of the Prime Minister's Office and its job of co-ordination and enforcement of the will of the government on the State machinery is severely compromised.

"In case of vital decisions on security issues, this can lead to disasters.

"The portents indeed are ominous. On December 14, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told Parliament that his government does not share the view that China plans to attack India.

"Exactly half a century ago, another Indian prime minister [Jawaharlal Nehru] stuck to a similar view, until November 21, 1962. Broadcasting to the nation that day, that prime minister lamented that in this hour of peril, our heart goes to the people of Assam! [the northeastern region which faced a Chinese attack]

"As Jawaharlal Nehru spoke to the nation, the civil administration in Tezpur had begun to burn documents and currency in the government treasury, prison doors were thrown open, and everyone made a beeline to get across the Brahmaputra [river] by whatever means. The stage was being set for surrendering all territory north of the Brahmaputra to the Chinese.

"To the people of my generation, the memories of that day give goose pimples even today. The unfortunate similarities do not end there…"

"One of the Horror Stories of the 1962 Conflict with China was the Way India Made a Frenzied Effort to Arm the Soldiers with Modern Weapons [without Ammunition and Training]"

"[The] morale of the army was badly affected. As someone who has studied that conflict, including the famed Henderson Brooks Report [a classified report on India's defeat], one can say without any contradiction that 'loss of morale' was the single biggest cause of our debacle in 1962 [in the war with China]…."

"One of the horror stories of the 1962 conflict with China was the way India made a frenzied effort to arm the soldiers with modern weapons. The insistence on 'indigenous' production of arms and inability of the local R&D[Research & Development]/factories starved Indian soldiers of tools of war."

"So, what do we do?

"Brand new rifles (the 7.62 SLR) were airdropped at Dirang Zong, of course without ammunition! As if the soldiers are robots who can instantly master new weapons and begin using [them]!

"Our army's modernization is stuck in red tape of the deepest hue. Import of the critical lightweight howitzer, so important to provide artillery support to infantry in the mountains, is stuck in the courts/CBI [Central Bureau of Investigation] clearances and what not.

"Anyone familiar with the armed forces remembers the phrase often used by superiors while giving orders, 'I do not care whether you beg, borrow or steal! I want this done!'

"It is time to remind the defense minister [A. K. Antony] that the country expects him to deliver security and efficiency. His primary job is to ensure honor and safety of the country, and not his honor, that must come last, always and every time.…"

"The Likely Threat will Only Emerge in June/July 2012; What We must Accept is a Short, Sharp, Attack by the Chinese…"

"It appears that China is carefully choreographing incidents … [against] India. First, there were several instances of Chinese troops crossing the border, marking their presence. We have dismissed these as 'minor' incidents.

"Then there was the verbal spat and exchange of notes over the Indian foray into oil exploration in Vietnam waters. The New Year saw ill-treatment of an Indian diplomat. Earlier, there were cases of Indian diamond merchants being imprisoned in China. All these could well be dismissed as minor incidents that involve local officials.

"If similar incidents were to take place on the India-Pakistan border, they are not to be taken seriously because in Pakistan nobody is in control of the armed forces or civilian officials.
"But China is NOT Pakistan – the People's Liberation Army [PLA], the media (including the Internet) are all under tight party/government control in China.

"India would be making a grave error of judgment if it considers these incidents as non- serious. There seems to be a design behind these orchestrated events, especially the forays by the PLA.

"It is time India woke up. Luckily, we do have some time. At the moment the Himalayan passes are frozen and no military operations are possible. The likely threat will only emerge in June/July 2012. It must be made clear that one is not talking of an all-out war.

"What we must accept is a short, sharp, attack by the Chinese, more in the nature of a slap!
"To those who claim that Indo-Chinese trade is too big – one needs to remind them that as a proportion of overall Chinese trade with the world, it is of very little consequence! It is time the ministry of defense cleaned up its act [and] got cracking in building up the Indian Army's military capability to face the Chinese threat."