A fatal attack on Israelis abroad could spark war with Iran and Hizballah

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis

This time, no one was killed although an Talya Yehoshua- KIoren, wife of the Defense Ministry representative in India, and three others were injured by a sticky bomb planted on her Innova SUV in New Delhi Monday, Feb. 13, at almost exactly the same time as a similar device was safely defused in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi.


In recent weeks, terrorist attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets were foiled in Thailand, Azerbaijan and Argentina. However much they deny this, Iran and Hizballah are clearly determined to keep on trying until they achieve their objective of killing targeted Israelis.

debkafile’s military sources say that the odds are on their eventual success, after failing in four out of five tries.

On this assumption, Israel’s chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz summoned three senior staff officers to a conference as soon as the first reports came in from New Delhi and Tbilisi at around noon Monday. It was attended by Military Intelligence Director Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavy, Air Force commander Ido Nehushtan and Operations Division chief Maj. Gen. Yaakov Ayash. The meeting’s level indicated that it was not limited to discussing the immediate import of the two bombing attacks but focused rather on the broader ramifications of a potential attack with Israeli fatalities and its impact on the prospects of war.

This assumption does not look far-fetched when it is recalled that deadly terrorist attacks in the past plunged Israel into two major wars.

On June 3, 1982, four terrorists gunned down Israeli ambassador Shlomo Argov outside the Dorchester in London. He was in a coma until his death 21 years later. Three days after the attack, Israeli troops invaded Lebanon to fight the Palestinians and Syria.

Twenty-four years later, on July 12, 2006, Hizballah raiders crossed into Israel and attacked an IDF patrol. They killed three of its members and dragged two back into Lebanon to be held as hostages. Before the day ended, Israel was at war, this time with Hizballah.

So the agenda on Gen. Gantz’s urgent discussion with the IDF’s intelligence, air force and operations chiefs was obviously not about plans to fly Israeli troops to New Delhi or Tbilisi, but for a calculus of the proximity of a full-scale war at some point in the ongoing wave of terror.

For some weeks now, the Middle East has been teetering at the edge of a precipice. A sudden shove could push it over the edge into full-blown armed hostilities without President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu or even Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei being in control. The atmosphere is already dangerously charged over the crisis in Syria, reciprocal US and Iranian threats over the Strait of Hormuz, and US and Israeli preparations to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.

But wars may be ignited without notice by a small spark or a terrorist attack far from Middle East shores that would cause enough Israeli fatalities to satisfy its instigators in Tehran and Beirut and provoke an Israeli military response. This was dangerously close to happening in New Delhi Monday.

'Iran must attack Israel by 2014'

By JPOST.COM STAFF

Khamenei strategist releases document providing legal, religious justification for annihilation of Jewish people.Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's strategist provided the legal and religious justification for the annihilation of Israel and the Jewish people, in a document published on conservative Farsi website Alef. Reports of the document began to circulate the internet this week.

The document, written by strategy specialist Alireza Forghani, outlined the reasons why, "In the name of Allah, Iran must attack Israel by 2014."

Claiming to only represent the personal opinion of its author, and not the Iranian government, the doctrine was published on a website believed to have close ties with the Ayatollah.

Forghani called the Jewish state a "cancerous tumor for the Middle East" and  reminded his readers that "All our troubles are due to Israel!"

"Every Muslim is obliged to equip himself against Israel," he urged, reasoning that if the Muslim world does not attack Israel in the near future, "the opportunity could be lost and it may not be possible to stop them."

The document explained that the war against Israel must be carried out in the name of "defensive jihad" - or the protecting of Islam against aggressors "who want to gain domination over the Muslims and kill them."

It also clarified that although Israel had yet to strike Iran, its occupation of Palestinian lands already justifies an attack as Islam dictates that "the political borders [of the world] cannot divide Muslims and the earth is divided into two parts - Muslim countries and non-Muslim countries."

Forghani pointed out that Israel is the only country in the world with a Jewish majority, using the findings of the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics's last consensus for veracity.

He posited that since Israel requires US and western support in order to attack Iran, the latter should take advantage of western "passiveness" to "wipe out Israel."

The document also provides a "concise description of mid- and long-range ballistic missiles that can target territories of this regional cancerous tumor" and destroy Israel in "less than nine minutes."

Iran presses ahead with dollar attack

 Last week, the Tehran Times noted that the Iranian oil bourse will start trading oil in currencies other than the dollar from March 20. This long-planned move is part of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s vision of economic war with the west.

By Garry White

“The dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme is nothing more than a convenient excuse for the US to use threats to protect the 'reserve currency’ status of the dollar,” the newspaper, which calls itself the voice of the Islamic Revolution, said.

“Recall that Saddam [Hussein] announced Iraq would no longer accept dollars for oil purchases in November 2000 and the US-Anglo invasion occurred in March 2003,” the Times continued. “Similarly, Iran opened its oil bourse in 2008, so it is a credit to Iranian negotiating ability that the 'crisis’ has not come to a head long before now.”

Iran has the third-largest oil reserves in the world and pricing oil in currencies other than dollars is a provocative move aimed at Washington. If Iran switches to the non-dollar terms for its oil payments, there could be a new oil price that would be denominated in euro, yen or even the yuan or rupee.

India is already in talks with Iran over how it can pay for its oil in rupees.

Even more surprisingly, reports have suggested that India is even considering paying for its oil in gold bullion. However, it is more likely that the country will pay in rupees, a currency that is not freely convertible.

Last week, Indian state-owned group Hindustan Petroleum said that Indian businesses could not pay for Iranian crude imports in rupees unless the federal finance ministry exempted such payments from crippling withholding tax. This issue remains unresolved.

India and Iran have agreed – but not yet started – to settle 45pc of payments for Iranian oil in rupees. Iran will then use the currency to buy imports from India.

New Delhi currently spends about $12bn (£7.6bn) on Iranian oil each year, importing 12pc of the country’s needs from the country.

India pays for its oil in dollars, routed through a bank in Turkey after a previous mechanism was shut down in 2010. The Indian government has been resisting calls to stop importing oil from the pariah state.

“There have been problems with regard to Iran’s nuclear programme,” Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, said on Friday. “We sincerely believe that this issue can be and should be resolved by giving maximum scope to diplomacy.”

All of this means that the EU ban on Iranian oil imports, which comes into force on July 1, could hit Europe harder than it does Iran.

The country currently supplies 500,000 barrels of oil per day to the EU and there is a potential oil price spike in the offing should Iran pre-emptively stop the flow of oil to Europe, which it has threatened to do.

This could be disastrous to businesses that are already finding the economic climate tough.

“While Iran may be able to find markets for much of its oil output in Asia, the alternative sources of supply to Europe are still unclear,” Caroline Bain, a commodities analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, said.

“Until the supply outlook stabilises, the oil price is expected to continue to reflect this uncertainty rather than the likelihood of lower growth in global oil consumption in 2012.”

The worries are already sending ripples of concern around the world.

“While we have been listing the Iranian situation as a source of upside risk for a decade, there are some new factors that can make for a far more dangerous outcome, as the current drift of policy on both sides is creating the risk of a significant escalation,” Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said.

“Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz, causing an anticipated 50pc rise in crude oil prices, resulting in widespread economic havoc,” the Tehran Times columnist noted.

So the EU ban could be counter productive, as it keeps the oil price high. However, as long as President Ahmadinejad’s economic war doesn’t escalate into an actual war, we may manage to avoid a crippling oil spike.

Frozen continent! Europe's rivers, lakes and even seas are iced over as bitter Siberian cold leads to temperatures of almost -40C

By Daily Mail Reporter

You would be forgiven for thinking these stunning vistas lay deep in the heart of Antarctica.
But they are, in fact, what has become of the European landscape as temperatures plummet to nearly -40C - the coldest snap in decades.

Rivers, lakes, beaches and even seas have been iced over by a Siberian freeze, creating some incredible sights, but also more tales of tragedy.

Thousands enjoyed a day out on the frozen Lake Pfaeffikersee, near Zurich, Switzerland, today, while ice anglers looked more like Eskimos as they braved the conditions on a Polish reservoir.
But in southern Kosovo, nine people were killed when an avalanche hit the village of Restelica, officials said on Sunday, adding to more than 500 killed in snow and bitter cold across the Continent in the past two weeks.          

In Poland, the interior ministry said 20 people had died in the past 24 hours because of the freezing weather, bringing the toll there so far this year to at least 100

A spokeswoman said the latest victims froze to death or were suffocated or killed by fires due to defective or improvised heaters. 

The Kosovo avalanche enveloped about 15 houses on Saturday, but only two were occupied at the time.   
One person was missing and a girl aged about six was found alive late on Saturday after residents and emergency services helped dig out the houses. She was taken to hospital.   

'The number of dead people now is nine and we believe there is still one missing person,' said Ibrahim Shala, a spokesperson from the Kosovo Security Force (KSF).     
     
Temperatures have plummeted in parts of Europe close to minus 40 degrees Celsius (minus 40 Fahrenheit) in the coldest February snap the region has seen in decades. Meteorologists say it could last till the end of the month.          

In Kosovo, three people died and two children were injured on Thursday when a gas can that a family was using for heating exploded.

Kosovo's government ordered schools to remain closed for another week with more snow expected. Police said many inhabited areas were completely cut off.     
        
In neighbouring Montenegro the government imposed a state of emergency late on Saturday after snow blocked roads and railways across most of the country. Three people have died so far.      
More than 50 people have been stranded on a train in Montenegro's north for more than two days as emergency crews struggle to rescue them.   

In the mountain town of Zabljak in Montenegro's north, snow was 2.3 metres deep, while authorities have banned all private traffic in the capital Podgorica, where snow is almost a metre (three feet) deep and more is forecast on Sunday.   

In Serbia, which declared a state of emergency last week, 19 people have died in the cold snap so far. 
Economists said damage from the cold weather may cost the country more than 500 million euros ($660 million).             

More than 2,000 industrial businesses have been idled to limit the strain on coal-fired power plants and hydropower plants, which were struggling because of the buildup of ice. 
      
The government also ordered the closure of all schools and non-essential businesses until February 20.   
Port authorities for Serbian sections of the Danube, Sava and Tisa rivers halted navigation due to a heavy buildup of ice.

For the first time in decades, parts of the Black Sea has frozen near its shores, while the Kerch Strait that links the Azov Sea and the Black Sea has been closed to navigation.

Assad wins out against opposition as Russia and Iran strengthen ties

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

Western intelligence sources reporting in real time found Saturday night, Feb. 11, that Bashar Assad's loyal military and security forces had by and large managed to subdue the rebellion against the regime. They are now purging the last pockets of resistance, especially in Syria's third largest city, Homs. Still to come are possible flare-ups here and there and inevitably more horror stories of atrocities, but to all intents and purposes Syria's eleven-month uprising is all but over.

In recent days, mass demonstrations and battles with armed rebels have virtually disappeared from the streets of the main protest centers of Daraa, Hama, Deir al-Zour, Abu Kemal, Zabadan and the restive outskirts of Damascus, which armed rebels briefly captured last month.

In Homs, soldiers of the 40th and 90th mechanized brigades are hunting down rebels hiding in the town and shooting them on sight.

A new name joined the gallery of Syrian mass murderers this week: Gen. Zuhair al-Assad, commander of the brutal six-day tank-backed assault and siege of Homs. This kinsman of the president had no qualms about gunning down hundreds of civilians in order to liquidate a small armed rebel group.

debkafile's military sources report that without outside armed intervention to halt the bloodbath – and there is no sign of any repetition of the NATO action which cut short Muammar Qaddafi's long reign – Bashar Assad will soon finish crushing the popular and armed resistance against him, helped by arms and military backing from Russia, Iran and Hizballah.

Military intervention is not on the cards for the United States - Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu was told Friday, Feb. 9 when he arrived in Washington to request US participation in organizing a Turkish-Arab operation in Syria or, at least, the supply of Western and Arab arms to the Syrian rebels.

Of the six revolts against Arab autocracies in the past year, two were crushed. The King of Bahrain was saved by Saudi and Gulf military support and now Assad looks like being the second survivor. The difference between them is that the Al-Khalifa House of Bahrain was rescued by Arab forces while the Syrian president is stamping out the uprising against him with the help of non-Arab powers, Iran and Russia.

Both powers sent important officials to Damascus last week: Iran's al Qods Brigades commander Gen. Qassem Soleimani was there Sunday and Monday (5-6 Feb.) at the head of a large military-intelligence delegation. No sooner was it gone when Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and SVR intelligence chief Mikhail Fradkov were deposited at the door of Assad's presidential palace.

According to debkafile's military and intelligence sources, both were on missions to finalize Russian-Iranian-Syrian collaboration in Syria and the Middle East after the regime finally suppresses the revolt.

Saturday night, Moscow pledged to continue to shield the Assad regime at the United Nations
Although fighting continues in some places, Bashar Assad is at the threshold of a major success. His victory may be short-lived but it is significant all the same, offering kudos for the Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah alliance and a contretemps for the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia.