The Fukushima Nuclear Disaster Is Far From Over

Spent reactor fuel, containing roughly 85 times more long-lived radioactivity than released at Chernobyl, still sits in pools vulnerable to earthquakes.

More than a year after the Fukushima nuclear power disaster began, the news media is just beginning to grasp that the dangers to Japan and the rest of the world are far from over. After repeated warnings by former senior Japanese officials, nuclear experts, and now a U.S. senator, it's sinking in that the irradiated nuclear fuel stored in spent fuel pools amidst the reactor ruins pose far greater dangers than the molten cores. This is why:

• Nearly all of the 10,893 spent fuel assemblies sit in pools vulnerable to future earthquakes, with roughly 85 times more long-lived radioactivity than released at Chernobyl

• Several pools are 100 feet above the ground and are completely open to the atmosphere because the reactor buildings were demolished by explosions. The pools could possibly topple or collapse from structural damage coupled with another powerful earthquake.

• The loss of water exposing the spent fuel will result in overheating and can cause melting and ignite its zirconium metal cladding resulting in a fire that could deposit large amounts of radioactive materials over hundreds, if not thousands of miles.

This was not lost on Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR), who after visiting the site on April 6, wrote to Japan's U.S. ambassador, Ichiro Fujusaki, that "loss of containment in any of these pools... could result an even larger release of radiation than the nuclear accident."

The urgency of the situation is underscored by the ongoing seismic activity where 13 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0-5.7 have occurred off the northeast coast of Japan between April 14 and 17. This has been the norm since the first quake and tsunami hit the Dai-Ichi site on March 11 of last year. Larger quakes are expected closer to the power plant.

Spent nuclear fuel is extraordinarily radioactive and must be handled with great care. In a matter of seconds, an unprotected person one foot away from a single freshly removed spent fuel assembly would receive a lethal dose of radiation within seconds. As one of the most dangerous materials on the planet, spent reactor fuel requires permanent geological isolation to protect humans for thousands of years.

It's been 26 years, since the Chernobyl reactor exploded and caught fire releasing enormous amounts of radioactive debris -- seriously contaminating areas over a thousand miles away. Chernobyl revealed the folly of not having an extra barrier of thick concrete and steel surrounding the reactor core that is required for modern plants, in the U.S., Japan and elsewhere. The Fukushima Dai-Ichi accident revealed the folly of operating several nuclear power plants in a high consequence earthquake zone while storing huge amounts of highly radioactive spent fuel in vulnerable pools, high above the ground.

What both accidents have in common is widespread environmental contamination from cesium-137. With a half-life of 30, years, Cs-137 gives off penetrating radiation, as it decays and can remain dangerous for hundreds of years. Once in the environment, it mimics potassium as it accumulates in the food chain. When it enters the human body, about 75 percent lodges in muscle tissue, with, perhaps, the most important muscle being the heart.

Last week, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) revealed plans to remove 2,274 spent fuel assemblies from the damaged reactors that will probably take at least a decade to accomplish. The first priority will be removal of the contents in Pool No. 4. This pool is structurally damaged and contains about 10 times more cesium-137 than released at Chernobyl. Removal of SNF from the No. 4 reactor is optimistically expected to begin at the end of 2013. A significant amount of construction to remove debris and reinforce the structurally-damaged reactor buildings, especially the fuel- handling areas, will be required.

Also, it is not safe to keep 1,882 spent fuel assemblies containing ~57 million curies of long-lived radioactivity, including nearly 15 times more cs-137 than released at Chernobyl in the elevated pools at reactors 5, 6, and 7, which did not experience meltdowns and explosions.

The main reason why there is so much spent fuel at the Da-Ichi site is that the plan to send it off for nuclear recycling has collapsed. It was supposed to go to the incomplete Rokkasho reprocessing plant, just south of the Fukushima nuclear site, where plutonium would be extracted as a fuel for "fast" reactors. This scheme is based on long discredited assumptions that world uranium supplies would be rapidly exhausted and that a new generation of "fast" reactors, which held the promise of making more fuel than they use, would be needed. Over the past 20 years the Rokkasho's costs have tripled along with 18 major delays. World uranium supplies are far from depleted. Moreover, in November of last year, Japan's "fast" reactor project at Monju was cancelled for cost and safety reasons -- dealing a major blow to this whole scheme.

The stark reality, if TEPCO's plan is realized, is that nearly all of the spent fuel at the Da-Ichi containing some of the largest concentrations of radioactivity on the planet will remain indefinitely in vulnerable pools. TEPCO wants to store the spent fuel from the damaged reactors in the common pool, and only to resort to dry, cask storage when the common pool's capacity is exceeded. At this time, the common pool is at 80 percent storage capacity and will require removal of SNF to make room. TEPCO's plan is to minimize dry cask storage as much as possible and to rely indefinitely on vulnerable pool storage. Sen. Wyden finds that that TEPCO's plan for remediation "carries extraordinary and continuing risk" and sensibly recommends that "retrieval of spent fuel in existing on-site spent fuel pools to safer storage... in dry casks should be a priority."

Despite the enormous destruction from the earthquake and tsunami, little attention was paid to the fact that the nine dry spent fuel casks at the Fukushima Da-Ichi site were unscathed. This is an important lesson we cannot afford to ignore.

Ethicist: Transhumanism ‘inevitable’

BY DAVID YONKE

Welcome to the posthuman world. Everyone is smart, tall, good looking, free from disease, and, some predict, will live forever.

The Rev. Mark Douglas, a Presbyterian minister, theologian, ethicist, and professor at Columbia Theological Seminary in Decatur, Ga., said in a lecture in Sylvania that transhumanism is "inevitable," as long as humanity continues to exist. In extrapolating natural evolution as described by Darwin, and given enough time, the human race will undergo significant genetic and biological changes, he said.

According to this theory, evolution will lead to a long-term progression from humans to transhumans to posthumans -- "a hypothetical future being whose capabilities and features are so different from ours that the term 'human' would seemingly no longer apply," Mr. Douglas said in a lecture Monday night at Sylvania United Church of Christ, the fourth installment in the church's "Scientists in Congregations" series.

Mr. Douglas, in his talk titled "What does it mean to be a human person? What the Bible says and what modern biology and medicine tell us," crammed a semester's worth of college-level material into an hour lecture, reviewing a number of theories about the future of the human race, from scientific, theological, and ethical perspectives.

Natural evolution is one of four ways that the posthuman might emerge, Mr. Douglas said. The others are biologically through intentional genetic modification, mechanically via nanotechnological integration of robotic and artificial-intelligence systems, and coercively via cooperation by another species.

Of the four possibilities, he said, the least likely is coercive transhumanism, as the "you will be assimilated" threat made by the Borg in Star Trek.

Citing the vast distances between celestial bodies and, as far as is known, the lack of suitable interstellar propulsion, Mr. Douglas assured the audience of about 150, "You can go to bed at night not worrying about the Borg."

The other three possibilities, by contrast, are under way, albeit weakly, Mr. Douglas said.
Natural transhumanism is an extension of Darwinian evolution involving gradual changes over multiple generations resulting in a new species.

Each of the theories has its problems, however, and with natural transhumanism they include that 96 percent of species do not evolve but become extinct.

In addition, Mr. Douglas said, human beings, unlike other species, can avoid the need to adapt to their environment because they alone have the ability to change their surroundings.

Theologically, one can find support in the Bible for transhumanism, he said, citing Scriptures that describe a future change or transformation. For example, I John 3:2 states that we "will be like him, for we will see him as he is."

Process theologians such as Marjorie Suchoki assert that "humanity is always in a process of becoming," Mr. Douglas said, while 20th century French theologian Pierre Teilhard de Chardin espoused a cosmology that integrated Christianity and continual evolution.

But posthumanism in the Christian framework is unique in that it is advental, hinging on divine intervention rather than on a series of progressions.

Biological transhumanism involves the intentional modification of the human genome, not just to cure disease but also to enhance natural, desirable traits such as intelligence, height, and good looks, Mr. Douglas said.

Scientists are already experimenting with gene splicing in mice and other creatures, and rapid advances are under way in mapping the human genome.

But genetic modification raises a wide range of religious, ethical, and practical concerns, he said, from dealing with the complexities of genetics to questions on whether positive changes would be available only to the wealthy and how or where to draw the line when human beings "play God."

Mechanical transhumanism, as espoused by author and scientist Ray Kurzweil, integrates human minds with machines. Mr. Douglas said Mr. Kurzweil believes there are people alive today who will never die because they will be able to "download" their thoughts and memories to a machine.

The philosophical, ethical, and religious problems and questions raised by mechanical transhumanism are virtually endless, he pointed out.

In summarizing the theology of posthumanism, Mr. Douglas said Christianity is shaped by the belief that "God is doing something new to us, and that, therefore, we neither can nor need to transform ourselves."

Rather than naive optimism or nihilistic cynicism, Christians ought to practice "prophetic hope," he said.

"Believe in a better future because God is doing something."

The next Scientist in Congregations lecture is to be given by the Rev. Jim Bacik of Corpus Christi University Parish May 21 at 7 p.m. at Sylvania United Church of Christ, 7240 Erie St., Sylvania.

Why Iranian engineers attended North Korea's failed rocket launch

Iranian rocket specialists were at the launch of North Korea's failed rocket test last week, according to South Korean reports. North Korea and Iran have long cooperated on long-range missiles.

 By Donald Kirk

A dozen representatives of the company that manufactures Iran’s missiles and satellites had ringside seats at North Korea's failed rocket launch last week, according to South Korean media. Analysts see their presence as the latest evidence of the relationship between Iran and North Korea’s cooperation on missile and nuclear programs.

“North Korea and Iran are in close cooperation about long-range missiles,” says Baek Seung-joo, senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. “There is the high possibility they sell nuclear technology to each other. At least their people exchange information.”

The relationship between officials and scientists in Tehran and Pyongyang – opposite poles of what then-President George W. Bush labeled an “axis of evil” – dates back to the 1990s, when both countries were getting deeply involved in developing nuclear technology along with the missiles capable of carrying warheads to distant targets.

The differences in programs

The programs between the two countries diverge but share common goals that are essentially hostile toward the United States and its most important regional allies, Israel, South Korea, and Japan.
The differences, say analysts here and in Washington may not be significant. North Korea already has nuclear warheads while Iran denies it plans to make them. Iran has launched satellites while North Korea claims to have done so but has not. North Korea has developed long-range missiles, including the one that failed last week, while Iran has focused on advanced versions of middle-range missiles capable of reaching Israel.

“Iran in most respects is a larger, more sophisticated country,” observes Greg Thielmann, formerly with the State Department and now senior fellow at the Arms Control Association in Washington. “They have a lot more resources. The Iranians have conducted a lot of missile tests. North Korean testing is much less frequent.”

What the North contributes to Iran

Although generally behind Iran technically and scientifically, and suffering from far more severe economic problems, North Korea contributed to Iran’s program by exporting its mid-range Nodong missiles, originally based on Soviet technology, more than 10 years ago.

“This was always a commercial relationship on the part of North Korea,” says Mr. Thielmann, former director of strategic, proliferation, and military affairs in the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research.

“Iran wanted to adapt these missiles and make them their own,” adds Thielmann.
In fact, Iranian scientists and engineers did just that, producing Shahab missiles capable of delivering warheads to targets in Israel.

It was its interest in North Korean missiles that prompted Iran to send a large team to witness the launch of Unha-3, the long-range North Korean missile that failed last week. The word Unha means “galaxy” and the number 3 indicates it’s the third launch of the same missile. Earlier versions were test-fired in August 1998 and April 2009.

Japan Picks Eight Tsunami-battered Regions for Smart City Projects

By Jay Alabaster, IDG News

The Japanese government will provide assistance to eight cities that were heavily damaged in last year's earthquake and tsunami to rebuild using "smart city" technologies that use IT to cut dependence on traditional power sources.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said it will provide a total of ¥8.6 billion (US$100 million) for coastal cities in Fukushima, Miyagi and Iwate Prefectures along Japan's northeastern coast. The cities, which teamed up with major domestic companies like Fujitsu, Toyota and Toshiba to apply for the project, now have until September to submit final proposals for projects that are up and running by March 2016.

Japan is investing heavily in infrastructure projects that seek to use advanced networking technology along with power grids to efficiently track and control electricity use. Such infrastructure, which includes Internet-connected power meters in homes, and giant electricity "routers" that control where power is sent, is considered a key building block before alternative energy sources like solar panels and wind turbines can be used on a large scale.

The project calls for the cities to come up with plans for using such technologies in their local communities, with budgets of at least ¥500 million. Those approved by the government can receive up to two-thirds of the cost from government funds. One city, Kesennuma, which has a large commercial fishing industry, proposed to implement a system to help power its seafood processing plants.

The island country has few natural resources of its own and has increasingly relied on nuclear power until last year's magnitude-9.0 earthquake and resulting tsunamis caused meltdowns at a key nuclear plant. Since then nearly all of the country's nuclear power reactors have been shut down for safety checks and many local communities are against starting them up again, leading to government-mandated blackouts to cut national electricity use.

 "One has the feeling that at any moment, things could get very bad again.” With these words, Olivier Blanchard, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, has set the tone for this year’s spring meeting of the IMF.

By Jeremy Warner

Blanchard is more optimistic about growth than he was, which is obviously progress of sorts. Unlike last year, when the IMF was constantly on the back foot in cutting its growth forecasts to keep up with reality, it’s now raising them again, albeit not by very much. But it is all based on the assumption that another European flare-up will be avoided. Few here in Washington would bet on such an outcome.

What is more, the IMF’s own analysis suggests that, come what may, there will be a further collapse in the supply of eurozone credit this year and next, with European banks contracting their balance sheets by a full 7pc – $2.6 trillion (£1.6 trillion) – by the end of 2013. This would imply an additional reduction in credit over the next two years of 1.7pc as banks seek to restore balance-sheet strength by shedding assets and rebuilding capital.

On a worse-case basis, says the IMF, the shrinkage could be as much as 10pc ($3.8 trillion), reducing credit supply by 4.4pc and growth by 1.4pc. Naturally, the great bulk of this adjustment would be felt in the troubled eurozone periphery, reinforcing the gulf between a depression hit and jobless south and a more prosperous but stagnant core.

There is also an unspoken further worry that underlies much of the IMF’s latest analysis – that policy has simply run out of road. There may not be much more the politicians and central bankers can do, even if willing, to ease the pain of the economic adjustment. Nearly five years after the crisis began, there remains little sign of resolution. Lasting solutions are as elusive as ever. The IMF’s depressingly orthodox policy prescription falls a long way short of providing them.

To all intents and purposes, what the IMF proposes is just a souped-up version of the eurozone’s existing approach to the crisis, a collection of half measures and conventional thinking that seeks to band-aid the euro without properly addressing the underlying causes of its crisis.

Prof Blanchard has referred to the dilemma at the heart of policy by characterising markets as “somewhat schizophrenic”. On the one hand they demand fiscal consolidation, but then they react badly when fiscal contraction leads to lower growth. They want the banks to shrink their balance sheets and rebuild capital, but, understandably, they worry about the effects of tightening credit on economic output.

It appears that many of the actions deemed necessary to bring the crisis to an end confound the chances of achieving it. But they do so largely because of the constraints of the euro, which deprives the south of the monetary freedom it needs to recover.

The latest outbreak of jitters about Spain provides a telling case study. By cutting the deficit so sharply, Spain is further undermining growth, thereby increasing the scale of the consolidation needed to eliminate the deficit. It’s a vicious circle from which there appears to be no escape.

A devastating analysis by the economist Luis Garicano has convincingly argued that the fiscal consolidation needed in Spain to meet any given level of deficit reduction would be up to double what the government is projecting.

The government’s calculations are based on a simple extrapolation of the necessary fiscal adjustment from nominal GDP. In an economy of roughly €1 trillion (£819bn), the 3.2 percentage point targeted reduction in the deficit would, on the government’s thinking, therefore require a €32bn consolidation.

You hardly need to be an economist as accomplished as Prof Garicano to figure out that ripping 3.2pc of demand out of the economy will cause it to be smaller at the end than it was at the beginning. In order to achieve the required reduction relative to GDP, the consolidation therefore has to be quite a bit bigger. The policy prescribed is self-defeating.

The same might be said of other aspects of the policy response to the crisis. In a system of free-floating exchange rates, divergent competitiveness is corrected through currency adjustment, with the uncompetitive devaluing against the competitive. Obviously, this cannot happen in a monetary union, so countries must attempt to regain lost pricing power through “internal devaluation”, or cuts in nominal prices and wages.

Politically and socially, internal devaluations are extraordinarily difficult to achieve. Prices and wages are “sticky”, and outside the public sector, they are not easily cut. But the effect of such price and wage deflation is also to add to the burden of the debt overhang, which, in the absence of default or debt forgiveness, will remain the same even as income reduces. The scale of the deleveraging challenge therefore gets bigger.

Having urged such actions, the IMF is being forced to nuance its position. “Manana, manana” is its latest mantra. Yes, let’s have credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plans, but let’s not be too hasty in imposing them. And those with the “fiscal headroom” to do so, by which is meant largely Germany, should ease back. The fact that Germany bizarrely thinks itself in the midst of an inflationary bubble, and is therefore most reluctant to do so, is completely ignored.

Some forms of bank deleveraging, the IMF now says, are better than others. Like Goldilocks, the amount, pace and location of deleveraging must be just right - not too large, too fast, or too concentrated in one region.

Unfortunately, what’s happening in practice is that as funding dries up, banks in the eurozone periphery are indeed biting into core lending, causing a fully-blown credit squeeze. Fearing break-up and default, banks in the more creditworthy north are also withdrawing lending from the periphery. The south is therefore experiencing a double-whammy of bank deleveraging. The IMF may have revised up its growth forecasts, but monetary union ensures that this is not a crisis capable of resolution.