Euro credit crisis can lead to a bigger crash than in 2008: George Soros

HYDERABAD: George Soros, the legendary investor, has warned that the European debt crisis could snowball into a something much bigger than the global financial meltdown in 2008, if it remains unresolved.

The Hungarian-born billionaire and now philanthropist on his first visit to Hyderabad, said that the core of the ongoing crisis was the lack of recognition that financial markets could generate financial inequities. "This misunderstanding led to the crash in 2008 and the euro crisis is a direct consequence of the bust in 2008," he said on Thursday.

Soros traced the origins of the euro debt crisis to the time when the eurozone was formed with a currency union and not a political union. According to him, there were flaws in the design of the Maastricht Treaty, the biggest being a false conception of how the financial markets operate. The Maastricht Treaty or the Treaty on European Union was signed on February 7, 1992, by 12-member nations of the European community in Maastricht, Netherlands to create a single European currency, the euro.

Since then there has been a recognition of the fact that a fiscal union was critical to the economic fortunes of the region. Germany and France are now pushing for new budget rules for countries which have adopted the euro as their currency.

Soros who started the Quantum Fund - one of the first hedge funds and later famously "broke the back " of the Bank of England betting on the British currency was downbeat on the global economy saying the current crisis was reminiscent of the Great Depression in the 1930s. The markets were signalling a collapse of the euro that could lead to the disintegration of the EU as a community, he said.

"The same scenario is replaying in a different context. The crisis is causing the financial condition the world over to deteriorate and this would have a catastrophic effect not only on Europe but also the rest of the world because of the inter connectedness," he said.

The dire warnings aside, Soros reckons that the first step towards resolving the crisis was to address the imbalance between creditor and debtor nations before charting out a strategy for growth. "It is a tragedy of a lack of understanding. Something that could have been handled easier has now become a profound problem. It is not clear at all if there will be a solution," he said.

The austerity measures imposed by fiscally sound nations such as Germany will salvage their economies, according to Soros. In fact, he feels that the credit crunch could have been averted earlier, but is quite unsure whether there could be a solution on offer.

Soros said that when the euro was introduced, it meant that the European Central Bank ( ECB) accepted the government bonds of the member countries at face value and included terms at a discount window. It brought interest rates in the various countries very close to each other and the banks bought up government bonds of the weaker countries.

He is no longer advocating investments in the financial markets. "Markets here are far from a state of equilibrium. Measures and yardsticks that were used before cannot be used to correct the crisis. Unless you can anticipate a situation correctly, it is better not to invest than to lose money."

Frankenstein ants created by scientists

Scientists have bred supersoldier ants with enlarged heads and jaws by using ancient genes to trigger development.

The monster ants, which use their size to protect the entrance to their nests, are a throwback to their ancestors that lived millions of years ago.

Supersoldier ants can be born naturally but are rare. They breed in the deserts of American and Mexico where they have evolved to protect their colony from invading ants.

But the man-made specimens were created from ordinary Pheidole morrisi ants, which contain the genetic tools necessary to develop into supersoldier ants.

Scientists in Canada used a special hormone on the larvae of ordinary worker ants to create the monster ants.

The research was published in the Science journal.

Authors Dr Rajendhran Rajakumar, from McGill University, Canada, and colleagues wrote: "We uncovered an ancestral development potential to produce a novel supersoldier subcaste that has been retained throughout a hyperdiverse ant genus that evolved 35 to 60 million years ago."

The results suggest that holding on to ancestral development tool kits may play an important role in evolving new physical traits, say the researchers.

Apple television gamble the talk of CES

By Scott Martin, USA TODAY

Apple is the only company that consistently gets big buzz out of the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas — without even attending.

This year will be no different.

Connected TVs — TVs that connect to and can access content from the Internet — will be a big part of CES this year. And just about everyone in tech expects Apple at some point to launch such a television — an iTV — that easily consumes and shares with other Apple devices content served from the company's media-storing iCloud.

"I do expect Apple to make an attempt," says Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, "since I expect the living room to remain a center for family entertainment, and that touches on all areas of consumer products that Apple is already making."

Apple declined to comment on its television plans, but the potential iTV is getting lots of chatter from others going into CES, which begins Jan. 10.

An Apple television foray makes sense. People could use any Apple device to buy TV shows, movies, music or games through iTunes and then play their purchases across all Apple's products — including a full-blown television in their living room.

But a major roadblock for Apple along the way has been securing content needed to make an iTV succeed. The problems Apple is having securing content deals were described in an interview with a person who worked in the Apple TV group and verified by two television industry sources. All declined to be identified because of the confidential nature of the talks.

They say Apple has been unable to cut deals that would let it offer first-tier TV network programs for an à la carte iTunes TV service. That's seen as a key element to launching a revolutionary iTV.

Since there also is no evidence Apple has ordered production of panels for TVs, an iTV is at least a year away, according to analyst Paul Gagnon at DisplaySearch, a firm that tracks the television supply chain.

But that hasn't stopped talk of iTV, nor has it slowed the touting of rival Internet TV plans. Top TV makers such as Samsung, LG and Sony also are looking to shake up the living room, as are tech giants Google and Microsoft.

At stake is a growing world market for Internet-linked TVs that's forecast to nearly double from $68 billion in 2011 to $122 billion in 2016, according to industry tracker IMS Research.

TV makers, in particular, are wary of Apple for good reason: Apple could bite off a hefty chunk of the market. Barclays Capital analyst Ben Reitzes estimates an Apple entry into TV in 2013 could bag it $19 billion in sales.

"Those TV companies could face a dilemma not unlike what Apple's iPhone did to mobile phone makers RIM, Motorola and Nokia," says IMS Research analyst Veronica Thayer.

While Apple has movie deals and some TV shows for its Apple TV set-top box, the key piece for an iTV is securing popular cable network content from the likes of Comcast's NBCUniversal, News Corp.'s Fox, Disney and others, according to the source who worked at Apple.

For now, those networks seem perfectly happy with steady income from millions of cable TV subscribers paying high monthly fees. Internet-connected TVs threaten to disrupt these businesses.

The networks may, however, be more willing to forge deals with technology companies in the future. Cable providers will "lose control in the next five years as more and more content moves online and onto streaming," says Creative Strategies analyst Tim Bajarin.

What's an iTV?

Apple is said to be looking at a 42-inch or larger LCD TV with built-in Wi-Fi. Inside the locked-down studio of Jonathan Ive, senior vice president of industrial design at Apple, there's a slick 50-inch TV, according to the source who worked at Apple.

An iTV also is expected to sport different forms of control from a typical TV remote. Says IMS Research analyst Paul Erickson, "If Apple builds a TV, I would expect them to use Siri or some voice (recognition) app to differentiate." Apple unveiled Siri as a voice-activated personal assistant on its iPhone 4S.

Also, an iTV could pack a computer chip that could run Apple's operating system and give the device access to tons of apps.

Apple's AirPlay, already in the Apple TV set-top box, would allow wireless connectivity with iPads, iPhones and iPods, and the devices could be linked by AirPlay to the iTV for game play and TV interaction.

And Apple's iCloud storage, launched last year, could house all the content independent of any of the devices, making it a buy-once, use-anywhere service for all of Apple's gizmos.

But Apple needs enticing entertainment for its iTV and may be casting a wide net. "I believe that Apple may be talking with the cable operators and the pay TV operators — DirecTV would be a great one," says IMS Research analyst Anna Hunt. There would have to be something in it for DirecTV, though. "Why would DirecTV want to jeopardize their TV packages and give something à la carte to Apple and undermine what they offer customers?"

Whatever the deals, they won't likely be cheap. Says Gartner analyst Mike McGuire, "How much is Apple going to pay up for this? The content guys can't risk their existing licensing deals."

Only one thing's certain: The rest of the industry is watching Apple for cues, and coming up with their own plans:

Samsung, LG

Samsung, the world's largest TV maker, has a "smart TV" strategy similar to what's expected from iTV, with cloud-delivered services to Samsung TVs, phones and tablets. But it has sidestepped trying to reinvent the TV marketplace. "You don't have time to reconstruct the ecosystem and the business model," says Eric Anderson, Samsung's vice president of content and product solutions.

Samsung is a leader, with about 1,000 TV apps to deliver digital entertainment. "A lot of people are developing (apps for) iPad first. But from a smart TV space, they're all coming to us. This space is moving so darn fast, and it's driven by the consumers' needs," says Anderson.

At CES, Samsung may show voice and motion technology to interact with its TVs, similar to Microsoft's Kinect. But Anderson said a rumored link with Google's Android-based Google TV is not coming.

He says Apple's potential TV plan is "top of mind," and he sees it as a positive sign that the TV market will change more quickly. "It starts and stops, though, with content," says Anderson. "We drink this Kool-Aid as well."

LG does not have a devices-and-cloud strategy like Apple's or Samsung's but sees that as the way things are headed. On the cloud, "We want to be able to provide that service to our customers," says Tim Alessi, director of new product development. He says 60% of LG's line of TVs will be Internet-connected.

The strong suit for LG is simplicity of user interface, he says. "This UI is a little simpler to follow. Google's is a little cluttered. Samsung's is a little cluttered and overwhelming."

Next year, LG TVs will add built-in motion and voice navigation, keeping up with Microsoft's Kinect and Apple's Siri.

"Apple's done some amazing things with (user interface) and ease of use, so we'll certainly keep an eye on what comes out of there," says Alessi.

Sony and Google

Sony is the only TV maker to back Google TV. The company has TVs and Blu-ray players that use a game-console-like controller to navigate the Internet, search for TV programs and access apps. Sony declined to say whether Google TV updates will be shown in its lineup at CES.

Google TV has come under criticism since its launch for having a clunky user interface and meager app offerings, among other issues, but that has not hindered sales of Sony TVs incorporating it. "They're among the best-selling TVs we have. Media has done a real good job of beating it up," says Brian Siegel, Sony TV vice president.

Siegel admits there are "lots of opportunities" for improvement, but points out that having Google's search capability built into the TV provides "good insight" as to how consumer behavior is going to change in the living room.

Meanwhile, Sony's PlayStation Network — more than 55 million PlayStation 3s have been sold — has for years had on-demand movies and TV episodes piped through the game consoles. It now offers Netflix, CinemaNow, Hulu and Vudu, as well as live sports from MLB.TV and NHL GameCenter Live.

Microsoft

Like Samsung, Microsoft isn't out to reinvent the television marketplace.

But to court holiday shoppers, it added to Xbox 360 content from Verizon FiOS, the Epix movie channel and Vudu's movie app on top of entertainment it already offered from ESPN, Netflix, Hulu Plus and others. Microsoft has sold more than 57 million Xbox 360 game consoles, with 35 million connected online via Xbox Live.

The company's Kinect controller, which allows voice and motion navigation of Xbox, is changing the way people interact with TVs. "We're bringing the voice capability to the entertainment experience in a way that it wasn't before," says Ross Honey, Microsoft's general manager of content acquisition and strategy. "It's tied in with all the apps."

For the holiday season, Xbox 360 also got Kinect updates and a software makeover that makes it look like Windows Phone 7.5 smartphones and what is expected in tablets. The uniform appearance across TVs and gadgets positions it much like what's expected of Apple.

Microsoft's flurry of holiday-timed announcements didn't leave much thunder for CES, and it now says it will bow out of keynote presentations and a booth presence at CES next year.

But it's clear that Apple has got Microsoft's attention.

"We do not discount what they are going to do in the space — they are going to come on strong," says Honey.

J&J AIDS Vaccine Helps Protect Monkeys From Virus in Study

By Simeon Bennett

Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- An experimental vaccine developed by a Johnson & Johnson unit and the U.S. military protected monkeys against an animal version of the AIDS virus, a study found.

Monkeys that got the vaccine were as much as 83 percent less likely than those that got a dummy shot to become infected with simian immunodeficiency virus, or SIV, researchers from Harvard Medical School and the U.S. Military HIV Research Program said in a study published online in the journal Nature today. They now plan to test the vaccine in humans.

While previous vaccine trials have helped to keep AIDS at bay by controlling the virus in infected monkeys, this is the first to prevent monkeys from becoming infected, said Dan Barouch, a professor of medicine at Harvard’s Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center who led the study.

“There’s more hope now than ever before that the development of a safe and effective HIV vaccine is indeed possible,” Barouch said in a telephone interview today.

The research builds on the first partially successful HIV vaccine trial in Thailand in 2009, which showed that two inoculations that hadn’t worked on their own offered some patients protection when given in combination. The first prompts the immune system to produce so-called killer T-cells that are primed to hunt and destroy infected cells, and antibodies that go after the virus itself. The second repeats the dose, boosting the body’s defenses.

The results in that trial showed about a 31 percent reduction in infections compared with placebo, though the benefit waned after a year.

Elusive Vaccine

The search for a vaccine to prevent HIV has eluded scientists since the early 1980s. While there are treatments for HIV that limit the virus in the body, holding AIDS at bay for years, there is no cure. AIDS, which is caused by HIV, killed 1.8 million people in 2010, and new infections with the virus fell to 2.7 million, according to a November report by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS.

Barouch and colleagues experimented with four different combinations of the so-called prime-boost approach, using disabled cold viruses and pox viruses as Trojan horses to ferry SIV proteins into the monkeys. Unlike other vaccine trials, they then exposed the animals to a strain of the virus that was genetically different to the one used to design the vaccine.

‘Stacking the Cards’

“That’s called stacking the cards against yourself,” said Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, part of the National Institutes of Health, which helped to fund the research.

After the first of six exposures, as few as 12 percent of the vaccinated monkeys became infected, compared with 75 percent of those that got a placebo. While most of the animals were infected by the sixth exposure, that doesn’t mean the same would be seen in humans because the virus used in the trial was about 100 times more infectious than that to which humans are typically exposed, Barouch said.

The scientists also found that the vaccines worked best when they contained a viral protein called Env, which is used to build the outer shell of the virus. That indicates

The most promising of the combinations was one that featured a prime vaccine developed by Crucell NV, the Leiden, Netherlands-based company that Johnson & Johnson, of New Brunswick, New Jersey, bought last year, and a booster developed by the U.S military and NIAID. The researchers plan to test that combination in people “in the near future” Barouch said.

The research was funded by the National Institutes of Health, the U.S. military, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Ragon Institute at Harvard, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Massachusetts General Hospital.

Pentagon Scientists Use ‘Time Hole’ to Make Events Disappear

By Katie Drummond

Soldiers could one day conduct covert operations in complete secrecy, now that Pentagon-backed physicists have figured out how to mask entire events by distorting light.

A team at Cornell University, with support from Darpa, the Pentagon’s out-there research arm, managed to hide an event for 40 picoseconds (those are trillionths of seconds, if you’re counting). They’ve published their groundbreaking research in this week’s edition of the journal Nature.

This is the first time that scientists have succeeded in masking an event, though research teams have in recent years made remarkable strides in cloaking objects. Researchers at the University of Texas, Dallas, last year harnessed the mirage effect to make objects vanish. And in 2010, physicists at the University of St. Andrews made leaps towards using metamaterials to trick human eyes into not seeing what was right in front of them.

Masking an object entails bending light around that object. If the light doesn’t actually hit an object, then that object won’t be visible to the human eye.

Where events are concerned, concealment relies on changing the speed of light. Light that’s emitted from actions, as they happen, is what allows us to see those actions happen. Usually, that light comes in a constant flow. What Cornell researchers did, in simple terms, is tweak that ongoing flow of light — just for a mere iota of time — so that an event could transpire without being observable.

The entire experiment occurred inside a fiber optics cable. Researchers passed a beam of green light down the cable, and had it move through a lens that split the light into two frequencies, one moving slowly and the other faster. As that was happening, they shot a red laser through the beams. Since the laser “shooting” occurred during a teeny, tiny time gap, it was imperceptible.

Sure, the team’s got a ways to go before they’re able to mask 30 seconds of action, let alone several minutes. But the research certainly opens up new possibilities. For one, masking super-quick events, like those that occur with data transmission, could help conceal covert computer operations.

In the words of Nature editors, the research marks “a significant step towards full spatio-temporal cloaking.” But it could be decades before military personnel will basically be able to zap history, as it happens: According to Cornell scientists, it’d take a machine 18,600 miles long to produce a time mask that lasts a single second.