North Korea 'may have developed nuclear warhead for ballistic missile'

North Korea may have developed a nuclear warhead small enough to be loaded onto a ballistic missile, the South Korean defence minister said yesterday, warning that risk of another “surprise provocation” by the Stalinist regime was now rising.

By Peter Foster, Beijing

“It’s been a long time [since North Korea’s first nuclear test in 2006], so we judge that by this time (it) could have succeeded in making smaller or miniaturised versions of its nuclear weapons,” the minister, Kim Kwan-Jin, told the South Korean parliament.

The minister’s assessment of Pyongyang’s potential nuclear capabilities, which he admitted was based on “an assumption”, not any specific intelligence, far exceeds the consensus of expert opinion on the North’s level of development.

However last November the North surprised many watchers by unveiling a sophisticated new uranium enrichment facility to supplement its existing plutonium-based weapons programme which it has tested in 2006 and 2009.

Attempts to launch a ballistic missile theoretically capable of striking Hawaii ended in failure in 2009, but triggered a fresh round of UN sanctions and an a tightening of an existing arms embargo.

The North is still believed to be trying to sell weapons. According to US officials quoted by The New York Times a Korean cargo ship believed to be carrying a consignment of weapons to Burma was intercepted by a US Navy destroyer patrolling south of Shanghai.

The South’s defence minister’s remarks come at a time of renewed tensions between the two Koreas. The regime of Kim Jong-il recently threatened military retaliation if Seoul did not punish troops who used pictures of the North Korean ruling dynasty for target practice.

After six months of relative calm, the warming rhetoric between North and South marks a re-escalation of tension from last year when North Korea was accused of torpedoing a South Korean warship in March and then shelled a South Korea island in November.

“The possibility of a surprise provocation with various means and methods is steadily increasing while (the North is) pressuring us with rhetorical threats,” Mr Kim said, adding Pyongyang had “succeeded” with a short range missile test two weeks ago.

South Korea’s government has taken a hardline with Pyongyang since its last nuclear test in 2009, cutting off almost all food and economic aid to the North and demanding that the Kim regime “demonstrate its sincerity toward denuclearisation” before any further concessions.

In the current environment experts see little prospect of a meaningful resumption of the Six Party nuclear disarmament talks, involving the Koreas, the US, Russia, Japan and China.