CITI'S BUITER: There's A 50% Chance Of A Greek Exit From The Eurozone And Here's How It Would Happen

by Simone Foxman

Citigroup economists Willem Buiter and Ebrahim Rabhari revised their predictions of a Greek exit from the eurozone—or "Grexit"—in the next 18 months up to 50 percent from 25-30 percent in November.

That's not only because Greece's failure to meet spending and austerity goals has angered the rest of the euro area and made other countries less willing to extend aid, but because the risks to the rest of the eurozone have been moderated as investors priced in this possibility.

However, halting tail risk is dependent on a few criteria, the most important being swift and strong action from EU leaders:

Clearly, the Grexit scenario that we describe here is subject to major downside risk, namely that exit fear contagion following Grexit could be much stronger than anticipated, leading to a sequence of sudden stops in the external financing of periphery sovereigns, banks and other private entities.

Unless an official ECB/EFSF/ESM/IMF firewall/ big bazooka can deter or negate such a withdrawal of market funding, there could be a sequence of forced exits from the EA, reducing the euro area to a greater DM zone.

There is also some circumstantial evidence in historical bond yields and GDP growth which suggests that investors do consider Greece to be a distinct case from Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy.

Still, Grexit is not Citigroup's baseline scenario—Buiter and Rabhari expect that a Greek default will indeed provoke a credit event, and that future debt restructuring will have to happen, but that it will stay in the eurozone.