Nouriel Roubini: Five factors that could derail the global economy

By Edward Krudy, Reuters

NEW YORK – Economist Nouriel Roubini is standing by his prediction for a global “perfect storm” next year as economies the world over slow down or shudder to a complete halt, geopolitical risk grows and the eurozone’s debt crisis accelerates.

Roubini, the New York University professor dubbed “Dr. Doom” for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, highlighted five factors that could derail the global economy.

Those factors are:

•A worsening of the debt crisis in Europe
•Tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world’s biggest economy into recession
•A hard landing for China’s economy
•Further slowing in emerging markets
•A military confrontation with Iran

“Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)…then we have a global perfect storm,” Roubini said in a television interview with Reuters.

Roubini’s gloomy 2013 outlook isn’t new, but it’s getting more purchase as slowing economies and Europe’s debt crisis drive turbulence in financial markets.

After what he expects will be a flat year for U.S. stocks in 2012, Roubini said the equity market could face a sharp correction next year, with little the Federal Reserve can do to stop it.

“There might be a weak rally because people are being cheered by more quantitative easing by (Chairman Ben) Bernanke and the Fed, but if the economy is weakening, that is going to put downward pressure on earnings growth,” said Roubini.

Roubini said the Federal Reserve may be pushed toward unconventional policy options as the simulative effect of successive waves of quantitative easing – effectively printing money to buy government bonds – diminishes over time.

Unconventional policy could include “targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent, doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing, targeting nominal GDP, price-level targeting and lots of stuff that is more esoteric,” said Roubini. “Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities.”

Roubini On 2013's "Global Perfect Storm" And Greedy Bankers "Hanging In The Streets"

by Tyler Durden

In an extended interview with Bloomberg TV, Nouriel Roubini lives up to his doom-saying reputation and goes where few have as he opines on Lieborgate that: "bankers are greedy and have been for 1000 years" and "nothing is going to change" unless there are criminal sanctions; to which he follows up - briefly silencing the interviewer, "If some people end up in jail, maybe that will teach a lesson to somebody - or somebody will hang in the streets". The professor goes on to note that the EU "summit was a failure" since markets were expecting much more and warns that without full debt mutualization, debt monetization by the ECB, or a quadrupling of the EFSF/ESM 'bazooka'; Italian and Spanish spreads will continue to blow out day after day - leading to a crisis "not in six months but in two weeks". The only entity capable of stopping this is the ECB which needs to do outright unsterilized monetization in unlimited amounts which is 'politically incorrect' to talk about and claimed to be constitutionally illegal. 2013 will be a very difficult year to find shelter as policy-makers ability to kick-the-can runs out of steam as he sees the possibility of a 'Global Perfect Storm' of a euro-zone collapse, a US double-dip, a China & EM hard-landing, and a war in the Middle East.

Dr. Doom is back.

On Lieborgate:

Nothing has changed since the financial crisis. The incentives of the banks is to cheat - doing things that are either illegal or immoral. The only way to avoid that is to break up these financial supermarkets. There are no chinese walls and massive conflicts of interest.

On Greed:

Bankers are greedy - they have been for 1000 years.

On Sanctions:

There should be criminal sanctions. Noone has gone to jail since the global financial crisis. The banks do things that are illegal and at best they get a slapped with a fine. If some people end up in jail, maybe that will teach a lesson to somebody - or somebody will hang in the streets.
On TBTF banks:

There are more conflicts of interest today than four years ago. The banks that were too big to fail and now they are even bigger. Things are worse - not better.

On The EU Summit:

The summit was a failure. The markets were expecting much more.

Either you have debt mutualization (to reduce the spread), or you have debt monetization by the ECB, or the bazooka of the EFSF/ESM has to be quadrupled - otherwise the spreads on Italy and Spain are going to blow up day after day. Otherwise you will have another bigger crisis not in six months from now but in the next two weeks.

On The ECB saving the world:

The only entity capable of stopping this is the ECB which needs to do outright unsterilized monetization in unlimited amounts which is 'politically incorrect' to talk about and claimed to be constutionally illegal.

On Debt mutualization:

It is not just Germany that is resistant but other core nations including The Netherlands, Austria, and Finland. Finland doesn't even want to accept the recent indirect mutualization of the summit liabilities (of the EFSF/ESM).

On kicking the can:

By 2013, the ability of policy makers to kick the can down the road is going to run out of steam, and in the euro zone the slow motion train wreck will become a fast motion train wreck. The US seems close to stall-speed and an economic recession. The landing of China is becoming harder and EM nations (and BRICs) are sharply slowing down. And finally the potential for war between Israel, the US, and Iran - which will double oil prices overnight.

On 2013 being worse than 2008:

Worse because like 2008 you will have an economic and financial crisis but unlike 2008, you are running out of policy bullets. In 2008, you could cut rates; do QE1, QE2; you could do fiscal stimulus; you could backstop/ringfence/guarantee banks and everybody else. Today, more QEs are becoming less and less effective because the problems are of solvency not liquidity. Fiscal deficits are already so large and you cannot bail out the banks because 1) there is a political opposition to it; and 2) governments are near-insolvent - they cannot bailout themselves let alone their banks. The problem is that we are running out of policy rabbits to pull out of the hat!

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