Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts

Saturday, October 10, 2015

Why Is Russia Attacking ISIS In Syria, While Supporting ISIS Incursions Into the U.S?


Four days ago, the Independent Media was ablaze with reports of possible border crossings by ISIS into the United States. I yawned and then went back to bed. This is old news and many in the Independent and the Maintream Media are acting as if this is some kind shocking new revelation.

Will the Real ISIS Please Stand Up?

This article is about the terrorist network that the Russians have managed to put together which is ravaging the CIA backed ISIS in Syria. However, in North America, the following documentation will clearly illustrate that ISIS is closely allied with the same terrorist groups that is wiping out ISIS forces in Syria. This should make everyone do a double take and scratch their heads. Will the real ISIS please stand up?
The documentation which demonstrates that Russia is allied with terrorist organizations as well as the Iranian military to preserve Assad’s reign over Syria is thorough. In Syria, Russia is obliterating ISIS in Syria. However, the documentation that ISIS and their terrorist allies are coming across the border in force is convincing. How can ISIS be a part to both sides of this fight on a global scale? Simple, ISIS is run by the CIA and the CIA has their own set of agendas. It is amazing to me that this duplicity in the running of ISIS is not widely being commented on.

The Texas Rangers Have Been Preparing for An ISIS Onslaught for Months

As the MSM pretends to be shocked with revelations of an intricate terror network entering the United States, I would be laughing out loud if the situation and implications were not so dire as the Washington Times reported,
“When asked at the annual Texas Border Coalition meeting if any suspected Islamic State terrorists had yet infiltrated the border, Steven McCraw, director of the Texas Department of Public Safety replied, “Individuals that come across the Texas/Mexican border from countries with a known terrorism presence and the answer to that is yes.” Well, Russia is allied with terrorists in Syria and by default in North America.
Six months ago, I was contacted by a member of the Texas Rangers who sent me an email which told me that the Texas Rangers were preparing for a massive ISIS incursion into the United States and the infiltration was already underway. Here are excerpts to  this communication.
Texas Rangers preparing for ISIS incursions.
Texas Rangers preparing for ISIS incursions.
Hello Mr. Hodges,
I have been a Texas Ranger for quite some time, and as such, I am privy to much of what is going on with regard to the Midland Walmart store closing, the presence of ISIS on Texas soil and our preparations to combat an insurgent threat.
I will not give you my rank or location because it would not be safe to do so. It is a waste of time to try and trace the IP#, etc., as I have taken steps to ensure that this note cannot be traced back to me.  I understand and  realize that you seem to have a growing issue with people who will not go on the record with their inside knowledge or first-hand observations, but you cannot understand the pressure and scrutiny that some of us are under. I am taking a big risk writing this email to you.
The main reason that I am writing to you is to encourage you to keep writing on the growing threat of infiltration in Texas and I suspect other states as well. The infiltration I am writing about is not just Special Forces that are going to conducting covert drills in our state. that is concerning and I agree with you this involves martial law.  For now I am talking about ISIS and the danger that they pose to all of us. Our intelligence indicates that they have enough manpower & firepower to subdue a small town. The Midland Walmart takeover by DHS is a national security move in which we have been told falls under the Continuity of Government provisions. The Threat Fusion Centers are providing related information on what it is we are facing but the information sharing is only in one direction and that is very concerning.
We expecting an attack on more than one Texas city or town by ISIS and/or any of their partners. I believe the information to be accurate. However, this makes the covert operations of groups like the Navy Seals and others under JH15 highly suspicious. We do not need the insertion of Special Ops into Texas towns and cities. I think that you are probably right about the intention of arresting political undesirables given what we know about JH15. I am of the opinion that whatever the mission objectives of JH15, they have nothing to do with the immediate threat. Therefore, I do not pretend to understand the full scope of JH 15 because there are unfolding operational details which are almost impossible to reconcile with what I already know to be fact based the evidence for what is going on…

I wanted to tell also you that we believe that Pantex is a high value target for ISIS and much or our preparation is to thwart any action by terrorists against the facility.  I am wondering how in the hell you figured that out. Someone on the deep inside must be talking with you…
 …We will have to see where this is going but I have a bad feeling.
You do your job and keep writing and I will do my job in upholding the Constitution
Thank You

Russia Is Building a Coalition of America’s Enemies In Syria to Fight Against the CIA Supported ISIS

Yesterday, it was announced that Iran, Russia, Hezbollah from Lebanon, and even Iraq have united with Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad to defeat the CIA backed ISIS in Syria. Further, Reuters is reporting that hundreds of Iranian troops have come into Syria. The Chinese are joining the fight. This cannot be resonating with Israel.
Click this link to listen to former Special Operations Officer, Scott Bennett, establish that the CIA formed and is funding ISIS, with help.

Judicial Watch, Hamas, Hezbollah, Russia and ISIS

ISIS base camp near El Paso.
Informed Americans were stunned when they learned, in April of 2015,  of the presence of an ISIS camp eight miles from El Paso, TX. Judicial Watch connected ISIS to the Mexican drug cartels. As I previously reported, Hamas and Hezbollah are connected to the cartels. The proof is incontrovertible.
Back in 2010, an internal memo was leaked from the Tucson Police Department. which stated that Islamic terrorist groups are commencing operations in Mexico and forming alarming ties with the country’s brutal drug cartels. In turn, the drug cartels are now associated with Hezbollah and ultimately their partner, Hamas. The memo also references a large weapons stockpile in Mexico as evidenced by the 2010 Tijuana arrest of Hezbollah militant Jameel Nasr, who was given the job of establishing a well-armed Hezbollah network in Mexico and South America. Nasr was apparently bringing this terror network north when he was captured. The memo also discussed the April 2009 arrest of Jamal Yousef in New York, which exposed a huge cache of assault rifles, hand grenades, explosives and anti-tank munitions. According to the report, the weapons were stored in Mexico, but only after being smuggled from Iraq by members of Hezbollah. This leads me to wonder if this was not a part of Fast and Furious. As a temporary aside, where do you think ISIS is getting its weapons? The preceding references contained in the Tucson Police memo does seem to answer that question.
The memo further warns that there could be dire consequences due to the new level of cooperation between Hezbollah and Mexico’s drug partnerships and this could be disastrous given Hezbollah’s advanced and new weapons capabilities. The report goes on to state that some Mexican criminal organizations have started using small IEDs which is clearly illustrative of the use of car bombs which is a hallmark trait of Islamic terrorists. IED’s are clearly the least of our worries with regard to the increased influx of MS-13 terrorists.
For the past nine years, the United States government has acknowledged the fact that Hamas and Hezbollah have strong ties to the Mexican drug cartels. We also know that Hamas, Hezbollah, al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood have partnered with the CIA in the formation of ISIS. And at the top of this pyramid is Russia. If you do not believe me, look at what is happening Syria!

The Cuban Missile Crisis Revisited

During the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis in which Russia has installed offensive nuclear weapons inside of Cuba, President Kennedy proclaimed that any attack upon the US and her allies emanating from Cuba would be considered to be an attack upon the United States by Russia. History has come full circle. Russia is repeating history. They are sponsoring a terrorist-based, Russian-led invasion of Syria. Meanwhile, back home inside the United States, Russia is sponsoring a paramilitary terrorist confederation inside of Mexico in which members are entering our country in great numbers.
THESE TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS ARE ALL ALIGNED WITH THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF SYRIA. THESE TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS ARE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE UNITED STATES IN GREAT NUMBERS.
ANY ATTACK UPON THE UNITED STATES BY TERRORISTS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED TO BE AN ATTACK SPONSORED BY THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT
Over the past two years, I have accumulated massive amounts of detail from sources out of the military, the State Department, the DEA. I am 100% confident in my data and the veracity of my sources.
This article merely skimmed the surface of the present crisis that will soon engulf many Americans. In one article, I cannot possibly cover the depth of information that I have accumulated which paints a very clear picture of our future. Subsequently, I am happy to appear on talk shows around the country in order to dispense this information in detail. I am going to expanding my media reach in the next several weeks. Before Its News, will be sponsoring and carrying the Red List News, which is a brief daily broadcast of the day’s major new events that Jim White and I have developed and implemented several weeks ago. Further, I am close to coming to terms with six terrestrial stations on the East coast to broadcast once per week over a seven state area. Exposing this gigantic fraudulent terrorist  network and its connections to Russia will be a primary focus of my expanded media efforts. The Obama administration must be exposed for what they have done and what they are preparing to do.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Hamas signs binding military commitment to Iran-led war on Israel



DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

Hamas leader Mahmoud A-Zahar and deputy commander of its military arm, Marwan Issa, spent the second week of September in Beirut and Tehran finalizing and signing protocols covering a binding commitment by the radical Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip to join Iran, Syria and Hizballah in a war on Israel, debkafile’s exclusive military sources disclose.

The protocols set out in detail the circumstances, procedures and terms governing Hamas’s participation in a conflict, whether it arises from an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program or the involvement of Iran’s allies, Syria and Hizballah, in comprehensive or partial hostilities against Israel. Hamas agreed to obey any orders to attack the Jewish state coming from Tehran, Damascus or Beirut.

Tehran also required A-Zahar and Issa to attach their signatures to copies of the military understandings Iranian National Security Director Saeed Jalili concluded with Bashar Assad during his visit to Damascus on Aug. 7. Those understandings, debkafile reports, touched off the massive Iranian airlift currently carrying hundreds of military personnel and weapons day by day to the embattled Syrian regime.

Hamas’s signature provided a booster shot of 22,000 trained fighters including reservists for the battle array of elite Iranian al Qods Brigades units building up in Syria and Lebanon and taking up positions along Israel’s borders.

This buildup prompted the large-scale snap military exercise Israel staged on the Golan Wednesday, Sept. 19. Most of the forces stayed on after the exercise was over and spread out along the Syrian and Lebanese borders.

The directives Hamas leaders received in Tehran after their meetings with top officials were detailed and precise. They were handed down in person by Defense Minister Ahmed Wahidi, Revolutionary Guards Chief Gen. Ali Jafari, the Al Qods Brigades commander, Qassem Soleimani, and a select group of Iranian intelligence experts on the Israel.

Those orders were presented in the language of commands and brooked no argument. Tehran had two goals:

1. To leave no leeway for the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, of which the Palestinian Hamas is an offshoot, to veto the pledges Hamas signed in Tehran. The Palestinian Hamas was put on notice that the group was now under contract to defer to Tehran in military matters ahead of Cairo.

2.  Iran, Hizballah and Syria instructed Hamas to stop obstructing Jihad Islami’s activities in the Gaza Strip and be ready to operate in harmony with Iran’s Palestinian proxy against Israel. In a potential outbreak of war, both must take their orders from Iran’s Middle East command.

For placing itself under Tehran’s jackboot, Hamas was assured of the resumption of Iranian economic aid and fresh supplies of missiles, advanced hi-tech war equipment to improve the accuracy of its rocket attacks on Israel - which rarely hit much - and anti-air weapons systems.

Iran had been keeping Hamas short pending the guarantees and pledges of allegiance A Zahar carried to Tehran and Beirut in the round trips he made between Sept 8 and 13.  Even then, to make sure there were no loopholes in their accords, the Iranians forced the Hamas delegation to break its journey home to the Gaza Strip in Beirut, repeat their commitments to Tehran to Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah and re-sign the documents in his presence. Failing to honor the deal, they warned, would elicit the immediate cutoff of Iranian aid and supplies.

debkafile’s military analysts report Hamas’ decision to unreservedly hitch its star to the Iranian wagon produced immediate fallout – especially on Egyptian-Israeli relations and counter-terror operations in Egyptian Sinai.

Friday, Islamist terrorists breached the Egyptian-Israeli border from Sinai, shot dead IDF Corp.

Netanel Yahalomi and injured a second soldier, before the IDF killed three of the gunmen in a shootout. In the last year, Sinai has become the stamping ground for al Qaeda cells and allied Islamic terrorists. Egypt’s new rulers have proved unequal to the job of controlling the territory.

At the same time, Cairo is demanding the revision of the 1979 peace treaty’s military clauses. President Mohamed Morsi said Sunday, Sept 23, that his government would uphold the peace pact with Israel only if US commits to helping the Palestinians attain self-rule.

Israeli leaders are now asking what guarantees is President Morsi offering for offsetting any Iranian-orchestrated Hamas war operations from Gaza in line with the accord they have just signed in Tehran and Beirut.

Furthermore, they ask, what happens to the al Qaeda cells and other military groups rampant in Sinai? Up until now Iran and Hamas ran their ties with those terrorists on separate tracks. Will they now effect a merger?

A note of foreboding on this score was struck by Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz Sunday, Sept. 23, when he toured the scene of the last shootout with Sinai terrorists.

“The Sinai border will continue to present us with a challenge,” he said. “We have made a colossal effort in the last two years to seal off the Egyptian border and it will be done. But even then, the threat will not disappear.”

Friday, September 21, 2012

Iran pours more troops into Syria, ready to target Israel from Syria and Lebanon



DEBKAfile Special Report

Iran continues to fly military personnel and quantities of weapons into Syria by civilian aircraft which cut through Iraqi airspace, American intelligence sources disclosed early Thursday, Sept. 20. UN Secretary General Ban ki-Moon also said that, "Unfortunately, both [Syrian] sides, government and opposition forces, seem to be determined to see the end by military means."

Clearly, Iran is augmenting its military involvement in the constantly escalating Syrian civil war, broadening it into a multinational conflict which threatens to drag Lebanon in, by means of the Iranian-Syrian ally, Hizballah.

The UN Secretary General's statement implying that the two Syrian sides are determined to fight to the bitter end is echoed in Iran’s resolve to fight to the bitter end for Assad, on Syrian soil.
Tehran is not hiding its actions. Sunday, Sept. 16, Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Commander Gen. Ali Jafari said openly that Al Qods Brigades units were present and operational in both Syria and Lebanon.

No comment on this revelation has come from the US, Israel or Israel’s military (IDF) chiefs - notwithstanding its menacing import, namely, that Tehran is no longer hanging about and waiting for its nuclear program to be attacked in order to punish Israel, but is getting ready for a pre-emptive operation.

Still, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have chosen silence in the face of what any other nation would regard as a casus belli: the open deployment of enemy forces on its northern and eastern borders.

This must have been the catalyst for the IDF’s surprise two-division strength drill Wednesday on Israel’s Golan border with Syria. But the IDF spokesman sounded almost apologetic when he explained that the exercise had nothing to do with the events in Syria or with Hizballah, and that it was no more than a routine drill for testing preparedness.

debkafile's military sources say that, in the current climate, no military operation by any army on the Syrian border – especially one of this magnitude – may be regarded as “routine.” Only a week ago, the Golani Brigade concluded a large military exercise in northern Israel including the Golan. That sort of frequency must have operational connotations: The IDF is evidently keeping the army on the move and in a constant state of readiness to fight a real war without delay on terrain made familiar by repeated war games.

IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Benny Gantz has a penchant for expressing himself through symbols, his method of overcoming the restrictions placed on his tongue by military and other constraints.

On New Year’s Eve last week, the general handed military correspondents a small gift: The Hebrew edition of the American writer Richard David Bach's "There's No Such Place as Far Away."

For the Golan drill Wednesday, he decided to attach Maj. Gen. (res.) Nati Sharoni, chief artillery officer in the 1973 Yom Kippur War, to his party of advisers and observers.

The book was a clear message to Tehran and doubting Thomases at home that the IDF is fully capable of an operation against Iran’s nuclear program and of successfully accomplishing any mission far from its shores.

Gen. Sharoni’s presence at the Golan exercise, and the exercise itself, was a warning to Iran, Hizballah and Syria that they will be disappointed if they hope to catch Israel unready, as it was by the surprise attack which almost overcame the IDF 39 years ago before the tide of war was turned back against Egypt.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Russia is disengaging from Syria: Arms shipments stopped, warships exit Tartus



DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

Russian naval vessels have unexpectedly departed the Syrian Mediterranean port of Tartus and Russian arms shipments to Syria have been suddenly discontinued. debkafile’s military sources reveal that those and other steps indicate that the Russians are rapidly drawing away from the Syrian arena to avoid getting caught up in the escalating hostilities expected to arise from military intervention by the US, Europe and a number of Arab states. Russian intelligence appears to have decided that this outside intervention is imminent and Moscow looks anxious to keep its distance for now.
According to our military and Russian sources, these drastic steps must have been personally ordered by President Vladimir Putin. He is believed to have acted over the objections of some of his army and naval chiefs. This would explain the mixed statements issuing from Moscow in recent days about the disposition of Russian personnel at the naval base in Tartus and Russian military personnel in Syria.

Wednesday, Aug. 22, Commander of the Russian Navy Vice Adm. Viktor Chirkov said that if the fighting in Syria reached Tartus, Moscow may decide to evacuate the base. He stressed that this decision would have to be taken on the authority of President Putin. He was the first Russian official to suggest the possibility of an evacuation.

A week later, Aug. 28, Russian chief of staff Gen. Nikolai Makarov denied anything had changed in the working procedures of Russian military personnel in Syria or that there were any plans to evacuate the Russian naval base in Tartus:

"I think it's too early to draw conclusions [from the situation in Syria]," said the general. "No one is running away from there.”

When a Russian journalist pressed the general and ventured to ask whether Moscow was terminating its military involvement in Syria, Marakov retorted, “Why are you so worried about Syria?"
But he didn’t answer the question.

debkafile's military sources disclose that the Russians have taken five significant military steps with regard to Syria in the last two weeks:

1. They cancelled a large-scale naval exercise dubbed “Caucasus 2012” scheduled to start mid-August in the eastern Mediterranean opposite the Syrian coast;

2. Warships from three fleets - the Northern, Baltic and Black Sea – concentrated opposite Syria have dispersed and returned to their bases;

3. Syrian President Bashar Assad was notified that Moscow was halting military aid to his army - except for intelligence updates and advice on logistics from Russian military advisers;

4.  Moscow has not clearly announced a freeze on arms shipments, including replacement parts for Russian weapons, which make up the bulk of the Syrian army's weaponry. Officials have only said, “There are no large Russian weapons shipments planned in the near future to Syria."

5. The only Russian naval ship left in Tartus - a floating Russian Navy PM-138 shipyard – is also under orders to depart Tartus and return to the Black Sea in September.

A Russian source disclosed that all the remaining Russian personnel in Tartus have gathered on the floating shipyard, except for two officers on shore. This vessel and the remaining personnel are evidently packed up and ready to sail at any moment out of the Syrian port.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Iran admits giving WMDs to terrorists


Rogue state threatens Israel over Syria

By Reza Kahlili

Israel will be obliterated by chemical, microbial and nuclear bombs, Iran is warning, but those weapons of mass destruction will be used first on Tel Aviv by Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad at the start of a decades-old Muslim dream of destroying the Jewish state.

An alarming commentary last week in Mashregh, the media outlet of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, confirmed that the Islamic regime not only has WMDs but has armed its terrorist proxies with them. Mashregh speaks for the regime.

It warned Israel that if the fighting in Syria does not stop, an all-out attack on the Jewish state will be launched and that at zero hour, Tel Aviv will be the first city to be destroyed.

“The threat to retaliate against Israel with weapons of mass destruction is credible,” said Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, executive director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, who previously served on the House Armed Services Committee and with the CIA. “A highly credible source in 2005 warned that a decision had been made at the highest level of the Iranian government to arm numerous ballistic missiles with chemical and biological warheads to retaliate against Israel if Iran’s vital interests were endangered. The fall of [Syrian President Bashar] Assad would constitute endangerment of Iran’s vital interest.”

The commentary said that for 18 months, Israel, with all its power, has tried to reshape Islamic movements that have targeted the “Zionists” into a conflict between Muslims, with Syria at the center of its efforts.

The Mashregh column charged that Israel is behind the Syrian crisis in order to strategically change the geopolitics of the region and defeat one of the main players in the Islamic world’s “resistance front.” It warned Israel that with the direction it has chosen, “There is a dead end, and the threat of mass killing awaits.”

The commentary recalled the doctrine of the founder of the Islamic revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini: “If they stand against our religion, we will stand against their world. If all this bloodshed is to provide a better future for Israel, we will destroy their world.”

The lengthy analysis claimed that several forces are involved on both the diplomatic and military fronts to break the Syrian “resistance front.”

It cited Turkish forces on Syria’s border with that NATO country but also claimed there are American forces along the Golan Heights and in Jordan, and Saudi, Qatar and French forces at the Syrian border with Lebanon.

“Their defeat from the fronts within [Syria] and the movement of their forces on the borders are signs that the world’s Zionists have lost hope on the capability of [anti-Assad] terrorists against Syrian forces and now are looking for an opportunity to get the armed forces of others involved,” the commentary said.

A strategic look at the situation in Syria, it said, shows that in order to safeguard Damascus and Bashar Assad’s regime, it is necessary to destroy “the center responsible for these destructions, which will force the enemy to retreat.” To that end, Iran will break “the security of Israel by targeting Tel Aviv.”

The commentary, citing the weak economies in America and Europe, said that in an all-out confrontation between the “resistance front” and Israel, the West will stay out of it, not wanting to fight Syria with a military of 220,000 military personnel and 240,000 reserves, Iran’s massive forces and Hezbollah.

Should Israel and its allies succeed in unraveling Syria so the legitimate Assad regime loses control, the commentary said, there are but two scenarios:

“Groups armed with weapons of mass destruction (chemical, microbial and nuclear bombs), which have been obtained on the black market, will surely target Tel Aviv.

“Other countries with different motivations from revenge to a change in the balance of power in the region looking for the elimination of Israel from the world’s map will use the chaos created without accepting any responsibility.”

Friday, August 10, 2012

Barak: A nuclear Iran is taking shape before us. Time for decisions is short


DEBKAfile Special Report

Stout refutation of reported disagreements over the military option against Iran’s nuclear program between the US and Israel, and himself and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, took up most of a long radio interview given by Defense Minister Ehud Barak Thursday, Aug. 9. He explained that US and Israeli intelligence essentially see eye to eye on this matter and so do he and the prime minister.

Barak referred to the new US National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran as confirming that both capitals understand that not much time is left for making decision on whether or not to go on the offensive against Iran’s nuclear facilities and when, because, he said, “a nuclear Iran is taking shape right before our eyes.”

Defense Minister Barak's key remark was this: "I am aware of an American intelligence finding (not the new National Intelligence Estimate) that brings American intelligence assessments [of the current state of the Iranian nuclear program] very close to ours. This makes the Iranian question [i.e., the issue of the Iranian nuclear program and a possible military operation against it] extremely urgent," he said without further explanation.

Barak disclosed that the US and Israel have been essentially of one mind for many months in their estimates of Iranian nuclear progress and the factors holding Tehran back from starting to build a nuclear bomb. All options therefore remain on the table, he stressed.

debkafile's military and intelligence sources add:  American-Israeli talks about a military operation against Iran wound up months ago in early 2012. The administration was made aware that notwithstanding President Barack Obama’s objections, Israel would soon go into action against Iran's nuclear facilities.

This presumption has been adopted as their working hypothesis by the top US command echelons, from Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey and down to the head of the US Central Command, Gen. James Mattis, who has both Israel and Iran in his jurisdiction.

Barak stressed that he and the prime minister are in total harmony on this issue.  "What we (the prime minister and I, and the Americans) understand is that there is not much time left for deciding [about an attack on Iran]"

He referred in answer to a question to the comment by former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy made last week: “if I were an Iranian, I would be very worried in the next twelve weeks.”
To this, Barak said "There is some basis to what Halevy said." He added: “We will soon have to make some difficult decisions.”

As to the public disputes over the media on the wisdom of attacking Iran, the defense minister said some of the debates and public disclosures not only harm Israel’s security but actually aid Tehran.
The price of allowing Iran to attain a nuclear weapon will be much greater than the cost of an attack.  It is already happening, said the Israeli minister. "And we must take into account the dangers and the very steep price in human life and in resources, if Iran goes nuclear. First, we must consider the outcome of first Saudi Arabia, then Turkey, and then the New Egypt becoming nuclear powers in their turn.”

Asked about an unattributed report Thursday that Saudi Arabia had sent a message to the Obama administration threatening to intercept any Israeli bomber planes using its air space to strike Iran, Barak replied he was not familiar with any such message. But, he said, Saudi Arabia is a sovereign state and makes its own decisions like any other country.

He went on to warn that another consequence of Iran’s nuclearization would be the strengthening of terrorist elements in the region, such as Tehran’s proxy, the Lebanese Hizballah.

At the same time, Barak also said: It's quite possible that we may have to deal with Hizballah anyway.”

This was taken by debkafile’s sources as suggesting that Hizballah is a rising menace - both because of its support for Bashar Assad in the civil war and for performing Iranian-sponsored terrorist attacks on Israelis in different parts of the world.

In discussing the situation in Egypt and Sinai-based jihadist terror, Defense Minister Barak asserted his confidence that Egypt is capable of dealing with it. “But I can’t say whether it has the will to do so,” he added.

For more than a year since Mubarak’s overthrow, “Israel has been readjusting its military and intelligence resources in the areas abutting Egypt and Sinai,” he said. "We have deployed an Iron Dome missile interceptor battery near Eilat in case it becomes necessary in that sector."

Barak did not elaborate upon what he expects to happen in the Eilat sector, which is the southernmost point on the Israeli map, or against whom the missile defense system was deployed.

He did offer a prediction on Syria, estimating that quite soon "we would see Syrian President Bashar Assad hunkering down with his army in a fortified Alawite enclave" encompassing the Syrian coast and the Alawite Mountains.

"The longer the war in Syria drags on," he said, "the greater the prospects of total chaos."

The defense minister underlined the importance of attempts to renew peace negotiations with the Palestinians as quickly as possible. He cited the growing strength of Hamas and its ties with the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and in other Arab countries as lending urgency to the revival of the peace process.

"On this issue, time is not on our side," he said. "But if progress proves evasive, both of us [Israel and the Palestinians] may be faced with having to perform certain mutually-agreed unilateral measures.”

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Iran will stand by Syria under any condition: Majlis speaker



TEHRAN – Iranian nation and government, as before, will stand by the Syrian nation and government under any circumstances, Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani told Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem during a meeting in Tehran late on Sunday.

Larijani said that a great regional and international conspiracy has been hatched against Syria because of its tough stance against the Zionist regime, and the West is angry about this.

Commenting on foreign intervention in Syria, Larijani said that the Syrian government, through resistance against terrorist groups, has proved that it has “a strong base” and is able to resolve difficult crises.

During the meeting, Muallem appreciated the Islamic Republic’s stance toward Syria and said that the Syrian nation will never forget the Iranian nation’s brotherly support.

Arrogant powers only seeking to save Zionist regime

In a separate meeting with Muallem on Sunday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that NATO and the governments that have no respect for justice and freedom undoubtedly cannot give these values to nations as a gift.

He added that the governments are only seeking to save the Zionist regime and establish their domination in the region.

He also expressed hope that security and stability would be promoted in Syria as soon as possible through the vigilance of the Syrian nation and government.

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Big Russian fleet nears Syria. Iran to fight regime change as foreign forces pile up



DEBKAfile Special Report

Russian, Western and Arab forces were piling up on Syrian borders Wednesday, July 25, bringing closer a war confrontation which could spur the Assad regime into making good on its threat to use chemical weapons against “external aggression.”

Based on this reading, Moscow added its voice Tuesday to that of US President Obama and warned Bashar Assad against using chemical weapons in view of “its commitments under the international convention it ratified prohibiting the use of poisonous gases as a method of warfare.”

debkafile’s military sources: With operational intelligence deployment and electronic stations positioned inside Syria, the Russians are better placed than any other outsiders to know what is happening on Syria’s battlefields. Their warning must therefore be tied to solid information confirming Washington’s assessment that Assad is dangerously close to deciding to use his chemical and biological weapons in a way that would precipitate a regional conflict.
  
Israel, Turkey and Jordan would be the first targets on his list.

The immediacy of the peril, debkafile’s military sources report, has speeded the arrival of Russian warships to Syria to counter a potential Western, Arab or Israeli assault on the embattled country.

The Russian Ministry of Defense, which rarely discloses Russian military movements outside its borders, announced early Wednesday morning, July 25 that a fleet of Russian warships had passed through the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the Mediterranean.

The fleet is headed by the anti-submarine and anti-aircraft Admiral Chabanenko warship and consists of another three vessels carrying a large number of Russian marines. This fleet will rendezvous with a Russian flotilla standing by in the Mediterranean since July 21, detached from Russian Black Fleet and composed of the Smetlivy figate and  two large landing craft loaded with Russian marines. This group awaited the main force before approaching Syria.

The fact that Russia is massing large numbers of marines off the Syrian coast looks as though a landing on Syrian soil is on Moscow’s cards.

The Russian marine contingent,  debkafile’s sources say, will stand ready - either to come to the aid of the Assad regime or to serve as a bargaining chip for a last-minute deal between Moscow and Washington for ending the war by establishing a transitional military regime in Damascus whose makeup would be agreed between them and Assad.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton hinted at this possibility on Tuesday, July 24, when she said: “We do believe that it is not too late for the Assad regime to commence with planning for a transition.”

But Clinton also hinted, in a more threatening tone, that a situation is developing for the creation of safe zones in rebel-controlled areas of Syria. “More and more territory is being taken and it will, eventually, result in a safe haven inside Syria which will then provide a base for further actions by the opposition,” she said.

Clinton didn’t name the potential protectors of those havens. However, since the Syrian rebels are short of manpower, Western, Muslim or Arab defenders would have to be called in.

Wednesday, British military sources in London said the moment is rushing forward for British forces to get involved in what is happening in Syria. Iran and Turkey are not indifferent either.

Deputy Iranian Revolutionary Guard chief, Gen. Masoud Jazayeri, warned on Tuesday, July 24, that Tehran would not permit regime change in Damascus and if Syria’s enemies intervened, Iran would hit them hard. The Iranian commander pointed a finger at Saudi Arabia and Qatar, adding that the US and Israel are at the forefront of the comprehensive campaign against Syria but are being beaten back.

This was the first time Tehran had explicitly threatened military intervention in Syria.

Wednesday, Turkey shut its border crossings to Syria. Military sources in Ankara confirmed that massive Turkish military strength had been on the move toward the Syrian border.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

IDF: Syrian chemical threat targets Israel. Obama warns Assad against “tragic mistake”




DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

Senior Israeli military officers, referring to the Syrian foreign ministry statement Monday, July 23, that Syria would only use chemical weapons against “external aggression,” found in it a direct threat by the Assad regime to turn those weapons against Israel. It was Syria’s rejoinder to Israel’s vow to use force against those chemical weapons to prevent them from reaching Hizballah’s hands in Lebanon.

Tensions between Syria and Israel, like its other neighbors - especially Jordan and Turkey – rose to a new pitch in the wake of the new Syrian statement.

Israel’s Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said plainly Sunday that preventing Syria’s chemical weapons from “falling into the wrong hands” was a key to Israeli security, while Defense Minister Ehud Barak said he had ordered the Israeli military to prepare for a possible attack on Syria’s weapons arsenal, because “Israel cannot accept the transfer of advanced weapons from Syria to Lebanon.”

Monday, British Foreign Secretary William Hague, catching onto Syria’s veiled threat, called it unacceptable: “This is typical of the complete illusion of this regime that they are the victims of external aggression.”

A few hours later, the UN Secretary Ban Ki-moon said in New York that he was “very concerned” that “Syria may be tempted to use chemical weapons.”

He was followed by Pentagon press secretary George Little who told reporters: “They should not think one iota about using chemical weapons,” he said. “We have been very strong in our statements inside the US government on the prospective use of chemical weapons and it would be entirely unacceptable.”

Finally, US President Barack Obama said Monday that “Assad will be held accountable if he makes the tragic mistake of using chemical weapons.

An Israeli officer told debkafile that the Syrian foreign ministry’s statement was tantamount to a declaration that the Assad regime holds all the cards on when and against whom to use its chemical weapons. America, Israel, Jordan and Turkey have no say in the matter. Assad alone will decide if and when to wage chemical warfare against such enemies as Israel and Jordan, although he may be expected to follow Iran in refraining from going after American targets at this time.

He has, in other words, given himself carte blanche for resorting to chemical warfare at a time of his choosing by reiterating that his government is subject to external Arab and Western aggression.

Israeli sources point out that the Syrian statement omitted any mention – certainly no denial - of the possible transfer of those weapons to Hizballah in Lebanon. The Assad regime must therefore be understood to reserve to itself that option, too, thereby laying Israel wide open to a direct threat. Israel and its military were alone in expressly vowing to prevent this transfer.

“We understand the Syrian ruler to be preparing to expand the Syria war into Lebanon whence his troops can threaten northern and Mediterranean areas of Israel,” said a US military source.

Another development Monday portending the further exacerbation of the Syrian crisis was the announcement by Aeroflot that it was suspending flights to Damascus in two weeks “for economic reasons.”

It looks as though Moscow foresees a further downturn in the Syrian conflict and estimates that by early August intensified air force activity in Syrian skies will reach a dangerous level.

Sunday, July 22, debkafile’s exclusive military sources outlined the military dilemma facing Israel with regard to the Syrian chemical weapon threat.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Anti-Israel attacks to mount in sync with Syrian war, looming strike on Iran




DEBKAfile Special Report

The tactics Iran, Syria and Hizballah have set out for escalating their terrorist attacks on Israel differentiate between “local” and high-value “strategic” targets. They have now decided to up the assaults on the latter to keep pace with the worsening war situation in Syria and the approach of an attack on Iran’s nuclear program. This is reported by debkafile’s intelligence and counter-terror sources.

Iranian terror planners classify the blowing up of the Bulgarian bus Wednesday, July 18 as “local” notwithstanding its “success” in killing at least seven Israelis and wounding more than thirty.

Destroying an Israeli passenger plane in Limassol, Cyprus, or assassinating an Israeli ambassador, in which they have failed so far, would have been “strategic” as would key Israeli security figures, politicians, business executives and Israel’s Mediterranean oil and gas fields.

Just by coincidence, two major episodes occurred on the same day only hours apart – a large hole was struck in Bashar Assad’s inner circle with the deaths in Damascus of half the management of his killing machine against the Syrian opposition and, soon after, the Israeli tour bus was blown up by means still under investigation.

This chance synchronicity heralds a new period of horrific Middle East violence which will reach not only Israel, but the United States and the West as well.

This realization was uppermost in the conversation between US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday morning, July 19. Neither doubted that Tehran and Damascus were hatching retribution for the assassination of top Syrian ministers.

They had information missing from media reports on the two events, including the news that straight after the deadly attack on Assad’s henchmen, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called an Iranian leadership conference which lasted most of Wednesday and was punctuated with frequent phone calls by Iranian officials to the Syrian President.

The content of those phone calls reaching reached Obama and Netanyahu showed clearly which way the wind was blowing in Damascus and Tehran: Neither intended pulling their punches.

The US and Israeli leaders agreed to work together in the investigation of the bus explosion in Bulgaria.

Our sources stress that this is just diplomaticspeak for holding off on action. Despite Netanyahu’s pledge of a “strong response” to the attack, it was decided that a proactive response to the attack by striking an Iranian or Hizballah target would exacerbate a situation which US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta described as “spinning out of control.”

Israelis have learned in the three years of Netanyahu's tenure as prime minister that expressions like “strong,” “forceful,” “determined” “we cannot tolerate” etc. mean just the opposite. Israel’s enemies also understand him to mean that he will sit tight and do nothing.

However, an escalation of attacks on Israeli “strategic targets” predicted by intelligence experts in the coming days may make this do-nothing policy untenable. After all, talking to Obama won’t deflect Iran, Syria and Hizballah from their resolve to vent their urge for revenge on Israel.

Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah has often managed to stay a step or two ahead of US and Israeli thinking – especially in his propaganda campaigns - ever since he surprised Israel by launching the Second Lebanon War in the summer of 2006.

A few hours after the attacks in Bulgaria and Damascus, Nasrallah had found his tongue and was crowing:

"We know what your [Israel’s] first strike will be and we promise you a big surprise."

His words were a warning to Israel and a message to Washington that anyone trying to reach the bunker in which he has been hiding since 2006 was in for a big surprise.

Israel was painfully reminded of the Iranian C-802 shore-to-ship missile fired from the Lebanese coast which surprised and crippled the unready INS Hanit missile ship exactly six years ago.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

If Damascus falls, Israel and its gas fields feared threatened


DEBKAfile  Exclusive Report

Syrian military forces were gathered in Tuesday, July 17, to save Damascus.

Tanks and armored vehicles were positioned in strength in the capital’s center and around government buildings. However, the noise and fury of battle in the Syrian capital Tuesday, July 17, were produced, debkafile’s military sources report, by six battalions of Bashar Assad’s loyal Allawite militia in clashes with the rebels who captured the two southern suburbs of Meidan and Tadmon Monday. They are trying to pound the enemy into extinction before its forces reach central Damascus.

The two beleaguered districts are home to a quarter of the capital’s 1.8 million inhabitants.

The Syrian general staff has withdrawn its command headquarters to a well-fortified complex on Shuhada Street in the capital’s center.

If Damascus falls and Assad is cornered, the entire region stands in peril of wider repercussions, because neither he nor Tehran will take defeat lying down.

debkafile’s military sources report their campaign will be paced and scaled according to the momentum of the Syrian rebels’ advance on Bashar Assad’s door-step, which could be drawn out and bloody.

On the Iranian-Hizballah list are Middle East oil installations as well as Israeli, US, Turkish, Saudi and Jordanian strategic targets.

Saturday, the Cypriot police captured a Hizballah terrorist before he could blow up an Israeli El Al flight and tourist buses in Limassol.

Tehran is feared to be focusing on the Mediterranean island as part of a plot to set Israel’s Mediterranean gas field Tamar on fire. The field is 80 kilometers west of Haifa
It would be a spectacular curtain-raiser for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and for strikes against Gulf oil installations.

Navy Commander, Maj. Gen. Ram Rothberg called last week for an extra five warships and submarines to safeguard Israel’s burgeoning gas fields at the cost of a billion dollars.

The Syrian ruler has stoked up the menace by moving out of storage missiles and shells armed with mustard gas, sarin nerve gas and cyanide stockpiled for years.

They are on operational readiness at Homs, Latakia and Aleppo and, according to Nawaf Fares,
Syrian ex-ambassador to Iraq who defected to the opposition, may already have been used against rebel concentrations.

The longer the battle for Damascus goes on, the greater the danger that the Syrian ruler will release his poison-tipped missiles against Israel, Turkey and Jordan.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Russia accuses West of blackmail on Syria plans



MOSCOW (AP) — Russia on Monday accused the West of effectively trying to use blackmail to secure a new UN Security Council resolution that would authorize the use of force in Syria. 

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's comments came ahead of a meeting with Kofi Annan, the United Nations and Arab League envoy for Syria whose plan for halting the fighting is weakening amid escalating violence.

The council is debating a new resolution on Syria, spurred by the July 20 expiration of the mandate for the UN observer force there and the failure of the Annan plan.

Russia opposes any resolution that can be enforced militarily.

“To our great regret, there are elements of blackmail,” Lavrov said at a news conference. “We are being told that if you do not agree to passing the resolution under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, then we shall refuse to extend the mandate of the monitoring mission.”

“We consider it to be an absolutely counterproductive and dangerous approach, since it is unacceptable to use monitors as bargaining chips,” he said.

Throughout the 16-month Syrian crisis, Russia has adamantly opposed international military intervention, fearing a repeat of the type of international action that helped drive Libya's Moammar Gaddafi out of power.

That position has put Moscow under intense criticism. Russia has rejected the criticism by saying it does not overtly support Assad, Russia's longtime ally, and by strongly backing Annan's plan.

Russia says any change of power in Syria must be achieved through negotiation, but the Syrian opposition has repeatedly said no negotiations with the Assad regime are possible unless he first leaves power.

Lavrov reiterated Moscow's position on Monday, saying it was unrealistic to try to persuade Assad to resign.

“He won't leave, not because we are defending him, but simply because a very significant part of the population in Syria stands behind him,” he said.

Comments by Annan last week indicated he favors the British resolution draft and it was unclear if he would have any significant leverage to exert on Russia during his two-day trip to Moscow, which also includes a meeting with President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.

Lavrov said he would not characterize the situation as a stalemate, but expressed dismay with the continuing fighting.

“What is happening in Syria is horrible,” he said.

Thursday, July 12, 2012

NATO, Russian naval-air buildup in E. Mediterranean, French units to Gulf



DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

NATO, which proclaims non-involvement in the Syrian conflict, and Russia, which vows to block foreign military action against the Assad regime, are both moving large naval forces into the eastern Mediterranean opposite Syrian shores.

A flotilla of at least 11 Russian warships has been detached from Black Sea, North Sea and Baltic fleet bases and is on its way to the Syrian coast for a maneuver; NATO has consigned its rapid response Maritime Group 2 to the same stretch of sea - where also five Israeli warships are deployed. The Western alliance has also increased surveillance flights over the Mediterranean from the Geilenkirchen air base in Germany.

This rush of military movements is explained officially by the big air-and-sea exercise launched by Syria Sunday, July 8, to simulate outside aggression. It follows Iran’s practice of continuous military drills for repelling mock Western or Israel attacks.

The exercise began with a barrage of dozens of surface-to-sea missiles simulating naval and shore defense against approaching enemy craft and landing forces.

At about the same time, Iran embarked on a big air-cum-missile defense exercise in the south to fight off potential aggression from the direction of the Gulf of Oman and the Gulf of Aden, where US air force units are clustered.

debkafile’s military sources report that this is the first simultaneous, coordinated Syrian-Iranian military maneuver for drilling action against an advancing enemy. It is synchronized from a joint headquarters established for the purpose in Damascus.

While these coordinated maneuvers are being presented as designed to fend off foreign intervention in the Syrian conflict, our sources report that they are in fact preparing for a potential US attack on Iran’s nuclear program, which is now expected in Gulf and European military quarters to take place in October, three months hence.

High-ranking Saudi princes associated with their national military and intelligence agencies frankly confided to Arab and Western officials on recent visits to Riyadh that the US and, possibly Israel too, are on the verge of war on Iran. “It is already decided,” they say. The only question still open is the date, which could be before or after the US presidential election on November 6.

In line with this prediction, France is reported in Paris to be massing a large naval force in the United Arab Emirates. The French nuclear aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle-R91 is expected to dock soon at the French naval base in Port Zayid on Abu Dhabi’s northeastern coast opposite the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The French are also boosting their air units at Al Dhafra Air Base, stationing them alongside a large American air force presence.  

Saturday, July 7, 2012

Clinton: Russia and China will 'pay price' for supporting Assad




Russia rejects in the strongest possible terms allegations that it supports President Assad in the Syrian conflict. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Moscow and Beijing must 'pay a price' for backing Assad.

“I do not believe that Russia and China are paying any price at all – nothing at all – for standing up on behalf of the Assad regime. The only way that will change is if every nation represented here directly and urgently makes it clear that Russia and China will pay a price,” Clinton warned.­

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said the west is operating within a friend-or-foe framework that he called outmoded.

“We categorically reject that such a question would even be posed regarding the current situation in Syria and Russia’s ‘backing’ of President Bashar Assad. This is not a question of supporting certain political figures or leaders. This is a question of managing a crisis situation in the country within a normal political framework,” Ryabkov said.

“Unfortunately, we’re unable to get a basic understanding from our western partners. The west is still appealing to “friend-or-foe” terms. We considered such terminology to be a thing of the past,” Ryabkov explained.

Russia and China once again opted not to attend the “Friends of Syria” meeting. Neither Moscow nor Beijing believe the meeting in the French capital will be helpful in uniting the Syrian opposition “on a constructive basis”.

“We have frankly laid out the reasons why we have restrained from joining the mechanism, the very name of which has a contradiction between the word and the deed,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said earlier this week.

The US Secretary of State further criticized Russia for the maintenance of Syria’s Soviet-made helicopters. Two weeks ago Hillary Clinton lashed out at Russia for repairing three Syrian helicopters, saying their presence “will escalate the conflict quite dramatically.”

The Russian Foreign Ministry swiftly refuted the allegations.

“In 2008 there was a contract to repair them. They are still to be assembled after delivery'', Lavrov said. ''That entire process will take at least three months. So to speak about something we have just sold to Syria, which is then to be used in action, is not true at all,” he added.

Meanwhile, Kofi Annan called on the West and Russia to lay aside their differences and work towards a sooner end to the Syrian bloodshed, which according to the UN latest estimates, has taken some 15,000 lives.

"They [the West] accuse the Russians of arming the [Syrian] government. The Russians accuse them of arming the opposition and flooding the place with weapons. This is instead of coming together to see what can be done," Annan told the Guardian on Friday.

US to seek another UN Security Council resolution­

The Paris conference wrapped up with a six-point resolution, affirming that more definitive UN Security Council action is required to resolve the 16-month conflict in Syria.

Hillary Clinton said the lack of compliance with Annan’s peace plan or obstruction to the transition should be punished with further sanctions.

"We should go back and ask for a resolution in the Security Council that imposes real and immediate consequences for non-compliance, including sanctions," ranging from economic measures to military force, she said.

Two previous UNSC resolutions have been vetoed by China and Russia.

Friends of Syria’s meeting also concluded with an agreement that the Syrian opposition should receive broader support, while those “who carry out and support repression” must face tougher and wider sanctions.

In the meeting, French President Francois Hollande demanded Assad step down. The Syrian opposition also called for humanitarian corridors and a no-fly zone to be implemented.

The Friends of Syria gathering comes just a week after a UN-led summit in Geneva where the international community endeavored to reach a consensus on the conflict. They agreed to get behind UN envoy Kofi Annan’s plan for a transition government in Syria.

However, Russia said that western powers were purposely distorting the terms of the agreement to push for the removal of Assad.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton claimed that the agreement said Assad must leave office, whereas Moscow claims that the original accord made no allusion to the removal of the Syrian president.

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Russia Shot Down Turkish F-4 Jet, not Syria, Claims Ankara Opposition MP



Masum Turker claims intelligence services pinpoint Russia's Admiral Chabanenko warship in Syrian harbour as aggressor

By Gianluca Mezzofiore

A Turkish opposition leader has claimed that the F-4 Phantom fighter shot down off the Syrian coast was attacked by Russia, not the Syrian military.

Masum Turker, leader of the Democratic Left Party (DSP), told TV8 the Russian ship Admiral Chabanenko downed the Turkish jet on 22 June.

"There are two Russian warships and a Russian frigate in Latakia [Syria] harbour," Hurriyet News quoted him saying. "One of them, Admiral Chabanenko, has the technology to detect the slightest action in the air.

"The vessel that shot down our plane is Chabanenko. It is the [best] equipped vessel of the three," he said.

Turker quoted turkey's foreign ministry and the foreign intelligence services as his source.

The claim came after Turkey's prime minister Recip Tayyip Erdogan pledged to "liberate Syrians from dictatorship" after the shooting down.

He also announced that the country has changed its military rules of engagement and that any Syrian troops approaching Turkey's border would be dealt with as a military threat.

Turkey claimed the plane was shot down in international airspace with a laser or a heat-guided missle. Syria said it shot the plane down with anti-aircraft guns as it was hovering within Syrian airspace at low altitude.

The F-4 Phantom fighter was said to be unarmed and was conducting a test and training mission on the border with Syria.

Erdogan insisted that a short-term border violation "can never be a pretext for an attack", citing hundreds of Syrian violations of Turkey's border.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Assad says Syria at war as battle reaches capital



By Oliver Holmes

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian President Bashar al-Assad declared on Tuesday that his country was at war and ordered his new government to spare no effort to achieve victory, as the worst fighting of the 16-month conflict reached the outskirts of the capital.

Video published by activists recorded heavy gunfire and explosions in suburbs of Damascus. A trail of fresh blood on a sidewalk in the suburb of Qudsiya led into a building where one casualty was taken. A naked man writhed in pain, his body pierced by shrapnel.

Syria's state news agency SANA said "armed terrorist groups" had blocked the old road from Damascus to Beirut.

The declaration that Syria is at war marks a change of rhetoric from Assad, who had long dismissed the uprising against him as the work of scattered militants funded from abroad.

"We live in a real state of war from all angles," Assad told a cabinet he appointed on Tuesday in a speech broadcast on state television.

"When we are in a war, all policies and all sides and all sectors need to be directed at winning this war."

The rambling speech - Assad also commented on subjects as far afield as the benefits of renewable energy - left little room for compromise. He denounced the West, which "takes and never gives, and this has been proven at every stage".

The United Nations accuses Syrian forces of killing more than 10,000 people during the conflict, which began with a popular uprising and has built up into an armed insurgency against four decades of rule by Assad and his father.

The U.N. peacekeeping chief said it was too dangerous for a U.N. observer team, which suspended operations this month, to resume monitoring a ceasefire. The truce, part of a peace plan backed by international envoy Kofi Annan, has long since been abandoned in all but name.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a group which compiles reports from rebels, said 115 people were killed across Syria on Tuesday, making it one of the bloodiest days of the conflict. Its toll included 74 civilians it said had been killed, including 28 in Qudsiya.

It described heavy fighting near the headquarters of the Republican Guard in Qudsiya, and in other Damascus suburbs of al-Hama and Mashrou' Dumar, just 9 km from the capital.

SANA said dozens of rebels were killed or wounded and others arrested in fighting on the old Beirut road. Government forces seized rocket launchers, sniper rifles, machineguns and a huge amount of ammunition, it said.

Accounts from the rebels and the government cannot be verified because access for journalists is restricted.

Samir al-Shami, an activist in Damascus, said tanks and armored vehicles were out on the streets of the suburbs.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said Syria must beware the wrath of Turkey after Syrian forces shot down a Turkish warplane on Friday at the Mediterranean coast. He ordered his armed forces to react to any threat from Syria near the border.

"Our rational response should not be perceived as weakness, our mild manners do not mean we are a tame lamb," he told a meeting of his parliamentary party. "Everybody should know that Turkey's wrath is just as strong and devastating as its friendship is valuable."

NATO member states, summoned by Turkey to an urgent meeting in Brussels, condemned Syria over the incident in which two airmen were killed. The Western alliance called the incident "unacceptable" but stopped short of threatening retaliation.

NATO's cautious wording demonstrated the fear of Western powers as well as Turkey that armed intervention in Syria could stir sectarian war across the region. So far there has been no sign of an appetite for intervention like that carried out last year by NATO against Libya's Muammar Gaddafi.

NO ACTION "AT THIS STAGE"

A Turkish official said Ankara's ambassador had not asked the NATO envoys for action "at this stage". Erdogan's speech was seen in Turkey as less belligerent than it might have been.

"Those who want war may be disappointed by the prime minister's speech," Turkish journalist Mehmet Ali Birand wrote. "But a big part of society breathed a sigh of relief."

Nevertheless, Turkish officials say they are ready for scenarios that include a possible need to protect civilians near the border. A Turkish official who asked not to be identified said: "For Turkey there are two bad scenarios: one, a mass influx of refugees and two, large-scale massacres in Syria."

"Ankara has not taken a decision for military intervention or a humanitarian corridor at the moment. But if these are needed, everybody would prefer that they will be done with international legitimacy. However, if things go really badly we have to be ready for any kind of eventuality," he added.

Erdogan said the armed forces' rules of engagement had been changed as a result of the attack, which Turkey says took place without warning in international air space.

"Every military element approaching Turkey from the Syrian border and representing a security risk and danger will be assessed as a military threat and will be treated as a military target," he said.

Russia, which has acted as Assad's main defender in the U.N. Security Council, called for restraint and said shooting down the aircraft should not be "viewed as a provocation or a premeditated action."

Syrian and Turkish accounts of the incident differ. Syria says it had no choice but to take out the plane as it entered Syrian air space flying low and at high speed. It found out it was Turkish only after the engagement. Turkey insists its aircraft entered Syrian air space only briefly by mistake.

Turkey is the base for the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) and shelters more than 30,000 refugees - a number Erdogan worries could rise sharply as fighting spreads. Rebel soldiers move regularly across the border and defectors muster inside Turkey.

Moscow has close relations with Damascus and has a naval base at Syria's port city of Tartus close to the spot where the jet was downed. Some defense experts said the Turkish plane could have been testing Russian-supplied Syrian air defenses.

Moscow-based defense think-tank CAST said Russia was expected to deliver nearly half a billion dollars worth of air defense systems, repaired helicopters and fighter jets to Syria this year despite international pressure to halt the arms sales.

Russia said it was crucial Iran should also attend a meeting on Syria of the five permanent U.N. Security Council members and regional players organized by Annan in Geneva this weekend.

Western countries oppose Iran, Syria's closest regional ally, taking part in the meeting and some diplomats have said it was not entirely clear whether the meeting would take place.

Obama rebuffs Erdogan’s appeal to lead Turkey in Syria attack



DEBKAfile Exclusive Report

Another urgent bid for the US to lead an allied offensive against Syria’s ruling regime fell on deaf ears in Washington. It came Tuesday, June 26, from Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who is spoiling for action after a Syrian anti-air ambush downed a Turkish reconnaissance jet flying over Latakia last Friday.

In several phone calls to President Barack Obama, Erdogan argued forcefully that the incident provided the perfect opening for a Western-Muslim-Arab offensive, according to debkafile’s military and intelligence sources. This offensive, said the Turkish leader, could drive into Syria, create no-fly zones, attack regime and military targets and establish safe zones for rebels and refugees. The Turkish army, air force and navy stood ready for immediate action, he said, but the US must take the military lead in this operation – and not just “from behind,” as in Libya.

Obama replied the time had not yet come for direct US military intervention in Syria, and covert operations by American, British, Turkish and French special operations forces should continue inside the country.

Erdogan maintained that covert tactics would neither stop the bloody violence in Syria nor upend the Assad regime. Only the open exercise of American military might and logistic and military capabilities could work and without it Turkey was constrained from going forward on its own.

That disagreement was behind the mixed signals coming from Ankara over the Syrian shoot-down of the Turkish military plane – insistence on punishing Damascus, on the one hand, and statements that Turkey does not seek war, on the other.

Tuesday, the prime minister stated to parliament: “After this attack, we have entered a new stage,” he said. “The rules of engagement of the Turkish Armed Forces have changed. Any risk posed by Syria on the Turkish border, any military element that could post a threat, will be considered a threat and treated as a military target.”

Erdogan’s statement was couched in the future tense, meaning Syria was off the hook this time.

However, in the interests of muscle-flexing, Turkey’s media reported Wednesday that its military had moved forces including tanks up to the Syria border and placed them on “red alert” with license "to shoot to kill.”

This train of events shows Prime Minister Erdogan, notwithstanding his close friendship with the US president, is in the same bind on Syria as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is on Iran.

Ankara is more than ready to hit back at Syria, just as Jerusalem has been standing prepared for military action against Iran’s nuclear program. But both are held back by President Obama. He hopes that by keeping Iran’s key ally Bashar Assad untouched and diplomacy rolling, an accommodation with Tehran on the nuclear issue is attainable.

This has left Erdogan falling back on the stratagem Netanyahu employs with regard to Iran and HIzballah: tough rhetoric accompanied by inaction.

This did not stop Syrian President Bashar Assad from declaring to parliament Tuesday, when he introduced a new cabinet headed by Riyad Hijab: “We are in a state of real war in every respect of the word and when we’re in a state of war, all of our politics must be concentrated on winning this war.”

As he spoke, British special forces (whose presence in Syria was exclusively revealed by debkafile Monday) carried out two tasks: They helped rebel groups, including the Free Syrian Army, extend their control of territory in the Idlib province on the northern Syrian border with Turkey and Lebanon, and gave them badly-needed hi-tech communications equipment.

They also made it possible for the first Syrian opposition leader, Burham Ghalioun of the Syrian National Council, to set foot in Syria. Under their heavy guard, Ghailioun toured rebel-controlled local villages in Idlib for a few hours before crossing back into Lebanon. Assad’s heavies watched helplessly.

Our military sources note the resemblance of this method of operation to the tactic employed by British special forces in Libya in early 2011, when they set up shop at the rebel center of Benghazi and from there, organized resistance to the Qaddafi regime.