Governments Control Everything But This Will End In Chaos

With continued volatility in global markets, today one of the top economists in the world sent King World News an incredibly powerful piece warning governments control everything but this will end in chaos.  Below is the fantastic piece from Michael Pento.

By Michael Pento of Pento Portfolio Strategies
– U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance Turns Into the Dark Ages

The October ISM Manufacturing Index, which has been the official barometer of the U.S. manufacturing sector since 1915, came in with a reading of just 50.1. This was a level barely above contraction.

Of the 18 industries surveyed in the Regional Manufacturing Survey, 9 reported contraction in October: Apparel, leather & allied products; primary metals; petroleum & coal products; plastics & rubber products; electrical equipment, appliances & components; machinery; transportation equipment; wood products; and computer & electronic products.

Energy Struggles

And of those nine, the energy market in particular continues to struggle the most. One respondent in the survey noted that the effects of the weak energy market are now beginning to bleed into other areas of the economy.

In addition to this, new orders for U.S. factory goods fell for a second straight month in September (down 1.0 %), confirming the manufacturing sector in the United States has hit a downturn. In fact, U.S. factory orders have fallen y/y for 11 of last 14 months; and contracted 6.9% from September 2014.

Furthermore, demand for durable goods fell 1.2% in September. While demand for nondurable goods (goods not expected to last more than three years) fell 0.8%. This placed downward pressure on GDP in the third quarter leading to a disappointing 1.5% GDP read.

During the month of September a majority of U.S. states reported jobs losses, as the slowing manufacturing sector weighed on hiring nationwide. The Labor Department recently announced that 27 states actually lost jobs in the month of September. This data belies the rosy headline 271k Non-Farm Payroll report issued for October: the Labor Department releases individual state data a month in arrears.

Turning Back To The Dark Ages 

All this bad news begs the question: Has the former manufacturing renaissance in the United States officially turned back into the dark ages?

Despite huge kudo’s to U.S. ingenuity for inventing fracking and horizontal drilling technologies, the viability of these innovations depends upon an unsustainable bubble in oil prices. Fracking is just one example of the misallocation of capital resulting from faulty price signals derived from central banks’ manipulation of interest rates.

And this failure isn’t limited to our Federal Reserve. The strategies of central banks all over the world are failing.

Problems In Europe And Japan

The European Central Bank (ECB) to date is in the process of printing the equivalent of $67 billion of QE per month, which will amount to a total of $1.2 trillion (or 1.1 trillion euros) by the time Mario Draghi’s QE program is slated to end in September of 2016.

Considering all that money printing, GDP in the Eurozone was only a pathetic 1.2% larger than it was one year ago.

Once the star of the Eurozone economy, German GDP disappointed with growth of 0.4% for the second quarter instead of the 0.5% analysts had been expecting. The French figure came in completely flat, and Italy, the Eurozone’s third biggest economy, disappointed with growth of just 0.2%.

Italy’s unemployment rate managed to fall in September, even as its economy lost 36,000 jobs during the month. This was because more discouraged workers left the workforce. As growth rates languish and economies lose jobs, central banks are getting more and more desperate to create inflation, which they like to masquerade as growth.

But the sad truth is even with over a trillion Euros of new money printed, governments are not achieving the inflation rates or the GDP growth they are seeking.

And then we have Japan, which is entering into its 3rd recession since the Abenomics regime took control in December 2012. The BOJ has been in the habit of printing 80 trillion yen each year! Nevertheless, its debt to GDP is approaching 250%, and annual deficits are 8% of GDP. The BOJ is buying 90% of all the bonds issued, and now owns half of all Japanese ETF’s. Yet despite a train wreck of an economy and horrific debt and deficits the 10 year note—in a perfect example of a central bank distorting economic reality–is yielding just 0.3%.

Our Fed has printed $3.5 trillion since 2008 in a futile attempt to get the economy growing at what Keynesians term as escape velocity. However, we have only averaged 2% growth since 2010. And growth in 2015 appears to be even less, as the all-important manufacturing sector is now clearly in a recession, and is now dragging down the rest of the economy.

Governments Control Everything But This Will End In Chaos

Today, there are no free markets left anywhere in the world. Governments control the fixed income, equity and real estate sectors; and therefore control the entire economy. And what was once touted as the U.S. manufacturing renaissance has morphed into another example of how government’s abrogation of free markets will ultimately result in economic chaos and entropy.

Governments Desperately Trying To Keep The Illusion Going As Crashing Stock & Bond Markets Set To Shock The World!

Today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, and major global events warned King World News that governments are now desperately trying to keep the illusion going as crashing stock & bond markets are set to shock the world!

Egon von Greyerz:  “Eric, I don’t think the general public has any understanding of what is happening in the world today and the incredible risks we are seeing.  Since 2008, world debt is up over 40 percent and so now the world has unsustainable debt levels of over $200 trillion….

Governments have tried to keep the illusion going by moving rates to zero or even negative in many countries.  But even with all the money printing and stimulus, the world economy has still not reacted to it and has stopped growing.  In fact, economies are actually starting to contract in many countries.

China contributed 85 percent of global growth in 2012.  But China is beginning to struggle and their contribution to global growth this year is only expected to be 24 percent.  Of course that will have major repercussions for the entire world because China has been a huge buyer of both commodities and machinery.  That buying spree is now declining dramatically.

The only thing left in the various governments' tool kits is fiscal stimulus.  But with countries mismanaging their economies and running major deficits, it will be impossible to increase the deficits because it will cause the debt to skyrocket.  Who will repay the additional printed money and debt?

Demographics is also a major problem for industrialized nations.  Take Germany, where 20 percent of the population is already over 65 years old.  That figure will grow to 30 percent by the year 2040.  In Japan, today 25 percent of the population is over 65 but that figure will grow to a staggering 40 percent by the year 2060.

Japanese Economy Won't Survive 400 Percent Debt/GDP Ratio

So there won’t be enough young people working in Japan to keep the economy going in order to pay the pensions for the elderly, much less to pay off the massive debts of Japan.  Look at Japan:  They have 250 percent Debt/GDP ratio today.  By 2035 they will have a Debt/GDP ratio of 400 percent.  Obviously that is totally unsustainable.  This is why the Japanese economy will not survive.

And at the same time that world economic problems are becoming insurmountable, geopolitical risk is increasing dramatically.  ISIS is likely to take all of Iraq in the next few months and then they will threaten Saudi Arabia.  Saudi Arabia is also likely to be attacked from Yemen.  If ISIS foments a civil war in Saudi Arabia, both the United States and Israel will get involved.

The other danger zone, besides Ukraine, is the South China Sea.  China is expanding their territory and they consider that it belongs to them.  But of course the Pentagon has said that they consider China to be a major threat to peace because of this expansion.  China has responded to that by saying that war is inevitable if the U.S. does not stop asking Beijing to halt construction of artificial islands.

So, Eric, the risks are increasing everywhere and the situation could become uncontrollable at any time, both economically and geopolitically.  Problems could erupt at any moment that would shock an unprepared world that would lead to stock and bond markets crashing together along with the dollar.  This will mean skyrocketing gold prices.  In that environment people may see gold soar a few hundred dollars in just a single day.

Exchange Controls To Trap Citizens And Their Money

At the same time governments are doing more and more to control people.  Cash withdrawals are being reduced and more draconian banking measures are being put in place.  This trend will only accelerate with governments seeking even more control over their people.

I could also see exchange controls being introduced in the not-too-distant future.  That will make it impossible to take any money out of the country.  That’s why it is so important to keep physical gold outside of the banking system and preferably outside of your country of residence as insurance against the unprecedented risks that the world is now facing.  

Unfortunately, when disaster strikes, very few people will be prepared.”

Niall Ferguson: Obama’s Gotta Go

Why does Paul Ryan scare the president so much? Because Obama has broken his promises, and it’s clear that the GOP ticket’s path to prosperity is our only hope.

I was a good loser four years ago. “In the grand scheme of history,” I wrote the day after Barack Obama’s election as president, “four decades is not an especially long time. Yet in that brief period America has gone from the assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. to the apotheosis of Barack Obama. You would not be human if you failed to acknowledge this as a cause for great rejoicing.”

Despite having been—full disclosure—an adviser to John McCain, I acknowledged his opponent’s remarkable qualities: his soaring oratory, his cool, hard-to-ruffle temperament, and his near faultless campaign organization.

Yet the question confronting the country nearly four years later is not who was the better candidate four years ago. It is whether the winner has delivered on his promises. And the sad truth is that he has not.

In his inaugural address, Obama promised “not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth.” He promised to “build the roads and bridges, the electric grids, and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together.” He promised to “restore science to its rightful place and wield technology’s wonders to raise health care’s quality and lower its cost.” And he promised to “transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age.” Unfortunately the president’s scorecard on every single one of those bold pledges is pitiful.

In an unguarded moment earlier this year, the president commented that the private sector of the economy was “doing fine.” Certainly, the stock market is well up (by 74 percent) relative to the close on Inauguration Day 2009. But the total number of private-sector jobs is still 4.3 million below the January 2008 peak. Meanwhile, since 2008, a staggering 3.6 million Americans have been added to Social Security’s disability insurance program. This is one of many ways unemployment is being concealed.

In his fiscal year 2010 budget—the first he presented—the president envisaged growth of 3.2 percent in 2010, 4.0 percent in 2011, 4.6 percent in 2012. The actual numbers were 2.4 percent in 2010 and 1.8 percent in 2011; few forecasters now expect it to be much above 2.3 percent this year.

Unemployment was supposed to be 6 percent by now. It has averaged 8.2 percent this year so far. Meanwhile real median annual household income has dropped more than 5 percent since June 2009. Nearly 110 million individuals received a welfare benefit in 2011, mostly Medicaid or food stamps.

Welcome to Obama’s America: nearly half the population is not represented on a taxable return—almost exactly the same proportion that lives in a household where at least one member receives some type of government benefit. We are becoming the 50–50 nation—half of us paying the taxes, the other half receiving the benefits.

And all this despite a far bigger hike in the federal debt than we were promised. According to the 2010 budget, the debt in public hands was supposed to fall in relation to GDP from 67 percent in 2010 to less than 66 percent this year. If only. By the end of this year, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), it will reach 70 percent of GDP. These figures significantly understate the debt problem, however. The ratio that matters is debt to revenue. That number has leapt upward from 165 percent in 2008 to 262 percent this year, according to figures from the International Monetary Fund. Among developed economies, only Ireland and Spain have seen a bigger deterioration.

Not only did the initial fiscal stimulus fade after the sugar rush of 2009, but the president has done absolutely nothing to close the long-term gap between spending and revenue.

His much-vaunted health-care reform will not prevent spending on health programs growing from more than 5 percent of GDP today to almost 10 percent in 2037. Add the projected increase in the costs of Social Security and you are looking at a total bill of 16 percent of GDP 25 years from now. That is only slightly less than the average cost of all federal programs and activities, apart from net interest payments, over the past 40 years. Under this president’s policies, the debt is on course to approach 200 percent of GDP in 2037—a mountain of debt that is bound to reduce growth even further.

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5 ‘real world’ signs of the coming Chinese apocalypse

By Pamela Heaven

From shrinking trade to stalling factories to surprise rate cuts, signs are mounting that China is headed for a hard landing.

Tuesday investors fretted as China’s imports in June grew at half the expected pace, entrenching concerns that domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy is cooling quickly.

The news was also not a good harbinger for China first-half GDP data to be released later this week.

While economists crunch the latest numbers, Trefor Moss, writing for Foreign Policy magazine, provides “real-world signs of China’s economic malaise.”

The stimulus that China pumped into the economy during the 2009 downturn is coming home to roost for local governments.

Municipalities are being asked to repay their debts and local officials, who indulged in fancy fleets among other luxuries during the boom years, are feeling the pinch.

The city of Wenzhou is planning on auctioning off 80% of its vehicles this year, 1,300 cars, with similar fire sales being held nationwide.

About 30 people were hurt and two police cars were smashed last month when a riot broke out in Shaxi township in Guangdong province — known as the ‘world’s factory floor.’

As exporters go bust and factories cut shifts, tensions between migrant workers and locals over layoffs and wage cuts are mounting. Migrant workers are the elbow grease of China’s growth and their disaffection could be its undoing, writes Moss.

More than half of China’s millionaires are either considering emigrating or have already taken steps to do so, a survey by Bank of China and wealth researcher Hurun Report revealed. And if they haven’t moved yet they are spending their money elsewhere.

Another survey by Allianz China Life Insurance says China’s wealthy are losing confidence in the domestic market and socking money into cash and less into stock, real-estate and other investments. Sales of luxury goods inside China are down, but investment in high-end property overseas is up.

A ‘naked official’ is a term in China that refers to an official who has sent his family and money abroad and is poised to make a getaway himself. And their numbers are rising.

Chinese prosecutors say 18,487 officials, including executives from state-owned companies, have been caught during the last 12 years while allegedly trying to flee overseas with ill-gotten gains, the Los Angeles Times reports.

As Moss points out, China’s wealthy are often members of the same family, and if China really does go into recession, a lot of rich people may decide to cut and run.

China’s ports are piled high with surplus coal as businesses and citizens try to save on electricity bills. Factory production cuts have contributed to the slump in demand.

The national price of coal is down 10% since late last year, a drop that will hit the global economy and in turn cut demand for Chinese exports.

Last year pork prices skyrocketed 57% in response to the growing Chinese appetite for meat, but over the past four months that demand has slipped. So much so that the hog-to-corn price ratio which measures whether rearing pigs is profitable dipped into the red and the government had to step in. At the same time the price of eggs has shot up so quickly that shoppers now call them ‘rocket eggs’ and Chinese consumers, shaken by the faltering economy and food safety scares, are opting to grow their own food.